Meanwhile, a look at the international models suggested that entire coastal Tamil Nadu would get a thrashing at the hands of the approaching ‘low.’
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is of the view that the week ending December 16 would see rains swamping entire coastal Tamil Nadu and most of the interior.
In fact, the ‘low’ is forecast to slither into south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala during the course of the week and drop some rain over Kerala as well. Sri Lanka would be the other major beneficiary of the rains.
Up to 600 per cent above the normal rainfall for the week is likely to be recorded over coastal Tamil Nadu, while it would range from 200 per cent to 400 per cent elsewhere, including Kerala, a forecast assessment by the NCEP said.
today was indeed very windy. I went biking today and going to Besant Nagar beach was not a problem, but coming back the winds from the north were terrible. On the small besan nagar beach stretch going from South to north, it felt like it took forever.
i give weather reports not only to my parents but also neighbours…i hav already said them about the new low..they believe me…becus(i hav predicted a lot of times that it will rain,during the t-storm season in chn and i think i was rite 95%….its easy to predict durin may-august ere….whenever there is t-clous to west it will rain in tbm 80%
but first we said rains from wednesday nite, then we said Friday and now we are pushing it to weekend……anyway i think i am happy if it rains thats all!
28 STATES AS OF NOW… BY THE WAY IF ITS MOVING SOUTH ITS A BAD NEWS…. END OF NORTH EAST MONSOON…. in 2005 december it happened like dat… system moved south and that was the end of the NEM of THAT GLORIOUS YEAR 🙂
S it has moved south checked in google earth for last 3 days gfs will soon change their prediction i think so but there s still good cloud mass around it jtwc will relocate it toni8 we ll see
I am eagerly waiting for the rain which is going to start this weekend. I said the same to my office friends and they are laughing at me. My prediction on rain is that we should be getting 12 to 15 cm rain which going to start this weekend.
u read that business line report?….the low will cross near south tn only…but give bountiful rains to entire coastal TN…600%above normal….i assume from der it will cross lanka and come to mannar gulf
an article i read in TOI two or three days ago an article read the farmers r excited for 2009 has been a normal NEM rain year and cultivations goin good expecting lot of profir but they r fearin the heavy rains to come in dec..
hey karthik i have a gut feeling it ll will affect only extreme south peninsular india and south kerala.. as usual Manimuthar, Vellanikara, Varkala, Kottayam will get rains 😦 😦
I have been following this site for the last 5 weeks.Very impressed with the analysis.will keep commenting as we move…
quick question to KEA- from where r u tracking the coordinates of the LOP?
KEA and Martin- have been following yr analysis very closely.Great stuff.
yup farmers should have been happy… Kaveri supported them till October and from november NEM saved them.. now they are absolutely fine.. the december rains would tarnish their dreams.. so lets pray for them as well us.. the only way is Concentrated rains in North and North West TN… dat ll give a bumper GDP growth for TN this year
Low is unstable… possibly strengthening.. which is why it moves north & south.. should stabilise & strengthen in the next 24 hours.. heading straight into nagapattinam.. but after hitting the coast is when the moisture will envelope the whole of SE india.. right from vizag in the north to kerala in the south-south west
the wind shear which was previously blowing from the SW – NE has changed direction and is now blowing from N – S which is why a small swirl can be seen.. wind shear needs to decrease.. only then can our L move faster…
the business line report luks gr8….600%above norm rain for tn coast
well…kea have u changed the prediction or is it the same?…..40 to 60mm?
Meanwhile, a look at the international models suggested that entire coastal Tamil Nadu would get a thrashing at the hands of the approaching ‘low.’
2 out of four models showin very heavy rain on monday…weather underground predictin 24cm and cola predictin 13cm
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is of the view that the week ending December 16 would see rains swamping entire coastal Tamil Nadu and most of the interior.
In fact, the ‘low’ is forecast to slither into south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala during the course of the week and drop some rain over Kerala as well. Sri Lanka would be the other major beneficiary of the rains.
Up to 600 per cent above the normal rainfall for the week is likely to be recorded over coastal Tamil Nadu, while it would range from 200 per cent to 400 per cent elsewhere, including Kerala, a forecast assessment by the NCEP said.
a windy morning
still why nobody ere?
i changed, its now 45 – 65 mm 😉
today was indeed very windy. I went biking today and going to Besant Nagar beach was not a problem, but coming back the winds from the north were terrible. On the small besan nagar beach stretch going from South to north, it felt like it took forever.
hope we get some rain…after all this hype…no one at home beleives me anymore when i tell them we will get rain..they just laugh at me…:-(
kea romba kanjam..u understand tamiz?
i give weather reports not only to my parents but also neighbours…i hav already said them about the new low..they believe me…becus(i hav predicted a lot of times that it will rain,during the t-storm season in chn and i think i was rite 95%….its easy to predict durin may-august ere….whenever there is t-clous to west it will rain in tbm 80%
i still believe dec is goin to be wetter than nov
very gusty winds ere too…slightly NNE….found diffclt walking towards nord
The bay looks beautiful today…
one thing is im very happy to see lots and lots of rain lovers ere..no one in my life ive seen …except ere…
quiz-
how many states are in india?
Add telengana to the states i have been in india
thats easy, 38 currently. could by 39 by end of day.
arey keaji 38?
most of my rain predictions to my family have come true. I haven’t mentioned abt December rains, I will one day before it arrives
28 not 38…and is already 29
i will say all predictions a week in advance
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
86.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA
why has this system moved south? Will we get any rains at all?
but first we said rains from wednesday nite, then we said Friday and now we are pushing it to weekend……anyway i think i am happy if it rains thats all!
there must be 27 states in India now?
thas what i was wondering. In school I studied 25 states. I think they mentioned 38 in CNN-IBN today. I thoght so many new states in 15 years.
name all the union territories of India
what happenned to GFS, its not updated, its stopped at 108 hrs. normally by this time the next update comes.
28 STATES AS OF NOW… BY THE WAY IF ITS MOVING SOUTH ITS A BAD NEWS…. END OF NORTH EAST MONSOON…. in 2005 december it happened like dat… system moved south and that was the end of the NEM of THAT GLORIOUS YEAR 🙂
pondicherry,chandigarh,delhi,dadra nagar & haveli, daman diu,andaman,lakshwardeep
S it has moved south checked in google earth for last 3 days gfs will soon change their prediction i think so but there s still good cloud mass around it jtwc will relocate it toni8 we ll see
when state in india has both the eastern and western ghats?
Tn anaimalai?is wer both meet
I am eagerly waiting for the rain which is going to start this weekend. I said the same to my office friends and they are laughing at me. My prediction on rain is that we should be getting 12 to 15 cm rain which going to start this weekend.
I think efs prediction is ri8 on this low 😦
tamil nadu was the correct answer. they meet at Niligiri hills
wat disd efs predict…goin low down to lanka
ajuravi,
what if it doesn’t rain?
thats why I am keeping a low profile abt these rains.
mr.kea i was shocked to see u say 38 states
everything is low about this low
http://www.daftlogic.com/projects-google-maps-distance-calculator.htm
the low is somewer der
u read that business line report?….the low will cross near south tn only…but give bountiful rains to entire coastal TN…600%above normal….i assume from der it will cross lanka and come to mannar gulf
i was fearin it wud move towards andhra orissa thankfully that is 99% impossible now
latest position as of 10:30 am
63N-838E
62N-842E (4:59 pm wed)
95N-867E (7:46 am wed)
89N-866E (5:15 pm tue)
87N-874E (6:07 am tue)
83N-899E (7:13 pm mon)
55N-882E (6:28 am mon)
53N-895E (6:25 pm sun)
My quesion is it possible to move so much in a short span of 9 hours.
gud news is dat after 4.59 it has moved nord…gfs predicts it to come nord from der
yeah i was also surprised goin fast down south…
i wont be suprised if this things becomes a dep
this one seems to be a reptile low….unstationary for a long time and a sudden huge leap
still with ur 200 mm prediction?
yes of course
12°54′25′′N 80°07′16′′E …
hope the next location of dis low be ere.
i think thers err in locating centre previously, still ther s confusion
an article i read in TOI two or three days ago an article read the farmers r excited for 2009 has been a normal NEM rain year and cultivations goin good expecting lot of profir but they r fearin the heavy rains to come in dec..
s i also think they must have erred but its movin nord west from der dont worry
the wind dir has chanjd to NE ere.very gusty
wow, we had the srongest wind since Nov 14th.
wat speed kea?
30.6
strong winds…sign of..??
s ss i checked in the site before u gave..
hey karthik i have a gut feeling it ll will affect only extreme south peninsular india and south kerala.. as usual Manimuthar, Vellanikara, Varkala, Kottayam will get rains 😦 😦
i hav a gut feelin we will get heavy rains..
I have been following this site for the last 5 weeks.Very impressed with the analysis.will keep commenting as we move…
quick question to KEA- from where r u tracking the coordinates of the LOP?
KEA and Martin- have been following yr analysis very closely.Great stuff.
this is the expected accumulation on saturday
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912091200&VAR=rsum&HH=72&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
good news is, its predicting to move north and into chennai. I think our heavy rains accumulating 40-60 will start sunday or even monday
now again kea r u postponin the rains to monday?
Murali,
the system 96 B can be found on http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
when u click on 96B, you will get th last coordinates, to get previous ones, you need to clck on previous
BBC is saying rains only from monday.
I think the satellite has gone mad or not responding,thats why gfs stopped updating since yesterday night.
so Tamil Nadu is going to be the biggest south indian state in terms of population in few months….
yup farmers should have been happy… Kaveri supported them till October and from november NEM saved them.. now they are absolutely fine.. the december rains would tarnish their dreams.. so lets pray for them as well us.. the only way is Concentrated rains in North and North West TN… dat ll give a bumper GDP growth for TN this year
Good winds sea s rough n murky today
very very gusty winds from nord ere
extremely good build up of clouds in the extreme of south east of Sri lanka… Chennai can forget its NEM and live happily ever after 😦 😦
wat time sat u lukd at kar?
He he s narayan its very bad for us atm
Latest sat at 11 show a swirl n som connective cloud near coast n heavy showers for triconamale n neastern lanka
Low is unstable… possibly strengthening.. which is why it moves north & south.. should stabilise & strengthen in the next 24 hours.. heading straight into nagapattinam.. but after hitting the coast is when the moisture will envelope the whole of SE india.. right from vizag in the north to kerala in the south-south west
so ur rain prediction for chennai martin?
the wind shear which was previously blowing from the SW – NE has changed direction and is now blowing from N – S which is why a small swirl can be seen.. wind shear needs to decrease.. only then can our L move faster…
but we can atleast think of it this way.. the longer it stays in the bay the stronger it becomes.. so more rains for us.. 🙂
very very gusty winds ere…so gusty that the flower pot with plants has fallen down and broken
I would still say between 200-230mm of rainfall..
Shear s bak to normal martin its only medium, now s its in the process of strengthening as we can see a swirl clearly
jon can u give the link pleez
Which link karthi jtwc clearly says wind shear vertical is medium
swirl link…latest sat ..
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&CONT=asie&CREG=inir&STRUCTUR=_
like the squall we had in sept..tyher is gusty winds ere
thx for d ;link
Hi all, Look the cloud in IMD page it has the look like face and it looking to chennai and smiling.
I cant see it
tks,Kea
Why has Accu suddenly brought down the rain quantum for Chennai?
u check it in the nite…accu weather will again show heavy rains for chennai,mr.murli
karthik, when is NE monsoon ending?
Karthik,
Accu predicting only 60 from this system
Do you still hope for 500 mm in 21 days?
Murali,
Accu forecasts keep changing all the time. I remember sometime last year in summer they predicted 300 mm, we didn’t get a drop.
It has worked the other way too, they predict less and we get double or even more.
i still hope we get 500mm
i heard mr.kea say NEM to extend till jan 2010
It has worked the other way too, they predict less and we get double or even more.
i think dis wil hapopen
u can believe mr.vinson kurien ….business line..
Wunderground does very good tracking of systems in the Bay with analysis as well.Is 96B tracked along these lines in any weather site?
yesterday total messages 77
today already 98
we need ESE winds