310 thoughts on “Rains expected not before weekend

  1. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is of the view that the week ending December 16 would see rains swamping entire coastal Tamil Nadu and most of the interior.
    In fact, the ‘low’ is forecast to slither into south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala during the course of the week and drop some rain over Kerala as well. Sri Lanka would be the other major beneficiary of the rains.

    Up to 600 per cent above the normal rainfall for the week is likely to be recorded over coastal Tamil Nadu, while it would range from 200 per cent to 400 per cent elsewhere, including Kerala, a forecast assessment by the NCEP said.

  2. i changed, its now 45 – 65 mm 😉

    today was indeed very windy. I went biking today and going to Besant Nagar beach was not a problem, but coming back the winds from the north were terrible. On the small besan nagar beach stretch going from South to north, it felt like it took forever.

  3. hope we get some rain…after all this hype…no one at home beleives me anymore when i tell them we will get rain..they just laugh at me…:-(

  4. i give weather reports not only to my parents but also neighbours…i hav already said them about the new low..they believe me…becus(i hav predicted a lot of times that it will rain,during the t-storm season in chn and i think i was rite 95%….its easy to predict durin may-august ere….whenever there is t-clous to west it will rain in tbm 80%

  5. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
    86.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-
    SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA

    why has this system moved south? Will we get any rains at all?

  6. but first we said rains from wednesday nite, then we said Friday and now we are pushing it to weekend……anyway i think i am happy if it rains thats all!

    there must be 27 states in India now?

  7. 28 STATES AS OF NOW… BY THE WAY IF ITS MOVING SOUTH ITS A BAD NEWS…. END OF NORTH EAST MONSOON…. in 2005 december it happened like dat… system moved south and that was the end of the NEM of THAT GLORIOUS YEAR 🙂

  8. S it has moved south checked in google earth for last 3 days gfs will soon change their prediction i think so but there s still good cloud mass around it jtwc will relocate it toni8 we ll see

  9. I am eagerly waiting for the rain which is going to start this weekend. I said the same to my office friends and they are laughing at me. My prediction on rain is that we should be getting 12 to 15 cm rain which going to start this weekend.

  10. latest position as of 10:30 am
    63N-838E

    62N-842E (4:59 pm wed)
    95N-867E (7:46 am wed)
    89N-866E (5:15 pm tue)
    87N-874E (6:07 am tue)
    83N-899E (7:13 pm mon)
    55N-882E (6:28 am mon)
    53N-895E (6:25 pm sun)

    My quesion is it possible to move so much in a short span of 9 hours.

  11. an article i read in TOI two or three days ago an article read the farmers r excited for 2009 has been a normal NEM rain year and cultivations goin good expecting lot of profir but they r fearin the heavy rains to come in dec..

  12. hey karthik i have a gut feeling it ll will affect only extreme south peninsular india and south kerala.. as usual Manimuthar, Vellanikara, Varkala, Kottayam will get rains 😦 😦

  13. I have been following this site for the last 5 weeks.Very impressed with the analysis.will keep commenting as we move…
    quick question to KEA- from where r u tracking the coordinates of the LOP?

    KEA and Martin- have been following yr analysis very closely.Great stuff.

  14. yup farmers should have been happy… Kaveri supported them till October and from november NEM saved them.. now they are absolutely fine.. the december rains would tarnish their dreams.. so lets pray for them as well us.. the only way is Concentrated rains in North and North West TN… dat ll give a bumper GDP growth for TN this year

  15. extremely good build up of clouds in the extreme of south east of Sri lanka… Chennai can forget its NEM and live happily ever after 😦 😦

  16. Low is unstable… possibly strengthening.. which is why it moves north & south.. should stabilise & strengthen in the next 24 hours.. heading straight into nagapattinam.. but after hitting the coast is when the moisture will envelope the whole of SE india.. right from vizag in the north to kerala in the south-south west

  17. the wind shear which was previously blowing from the SW – NE has changed direction and is now blowing from N – S which is why a small swirl can be seen.. wind shear needs to decrease.. only then can our L move faster…

  18. but we can atleast think of it this way.. the longer it stays in the bay the stronger it becomes.. so more rains for us.. 🙂

  19. Murali,

    Accu forecasts keep changing all the time. I remember sometime last year in summer they predicted 300 mm, we didn’t get a drop.

    It has worked the other way too, they predict less and we get double or even more.

  20. Wunderground does very good tracking of systems in the Bay with analysis as well.Is 96B tracked along these lines in any weather site?

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