3.The GFS is predicting another stronger system (possibly Depression) expected to form around 8th december which is expected to move towards Srilanka tamilnadu coast….chennai is predicted very heavy rains
its says postively for hosting a system…its still warm enough
These seas are still warm beyond the threshold limit allowing them to host, or facilitate easy passage to, weather systems that choose to move towards Sri Lanka or mainland India.
According to international model forecasts, the Bay of Bengal would increasingly get busier with easterly convective rain bands shown to extend into its northern flanks during the course of the week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projected that the build-up may culminate in the formation of a low-pressure area just off central and south-central Tamil Nadu coast during early December.
i dont think the low can become anything more than a depression or deep depression at the most.. because a stronger system is just east of it… will have to wait for next 24 hours to see if it actually strengthens or remains the same.. As far as direction goes.. it is heading straight for south TN & SL cos of the condensed easterlies south of vietnam & malaysia..
tropical depression 27 over philippines & typhoon bongani will disappear by thursday evening… leaving just 2 L areas.. one in BOB and one in the malay sea south of vietnam
2 reasons could take the depression away from us..
1. There is a high pressure area persisting over southern himalayas – North bihar, uttaranchal, sikkim etc.. So the depression could run away north..
2. Sea surface temperatures are higher in the northern bay around bengal, bangladesh and orissa which could again make the depression move north & gain strength from the warm waters..
Sea surface temperature in a small area around Myanmar is really high.. 30 – 31 degrees Celsius. Whereas around this small area SST are cold at 24 degrees celsius. SST around TN coast are at 27 – 28 degrees celsius
i live near a lake, and the frogs have been croaking non-stop, every since it rained, the legend goes that when they stop croaking, the rains will stop! hope we get more rains….just hoping…
just had a look at the water wapor… can very clearly see the limits of the High pressure area over china extending all the way upto north BOB.. so if our low turns into a depression & follows norms.. then it would most likely hit southern AP & Northern TN if it can reach here…
remember it has a long way to travel and many times in the past even when cyclones have formed in the middle of the bay they failed to make landfall… so I would give it a 35% chance of coming anywhere near TN… And 65% chance of getting decent rainfall from this system
Kea,you should take back your word this monsoon is active and 2 more systems on the trott
——————————————-
Nov 24 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has traced a low-pressure over South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on Tuesday.
The system is likely to become more marked, the IMD outlook said. It may persist during the next three days with a movement to west-north-west – towards the Sri Lankan coast.
The cyclonic circulation tracking model, NGP, by the US National Centrefor Environmental Prediction agreed with this outlook positing the system for a landfall over Sri Lanka and adjoining South-East Tamil Nadu coast by November 30.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
But the Canadian Meteorological Centre took the system to a more north-north-west track that would take it to central Tamil Nadu coast during the same time span.
Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal and South-East Arabian Sea. The IMD has forecast isolated to scattered rainfall over extreme south peninsular India during until the weekend.
The North-East monsoon was subdued during the past 24 hours ending Tuesday morning as a dry phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave began impacting equatorial Indian Ocean and neighbourhood.
But, easterlies still continue to make their presence felt over the Bay of Bengal, more so, to the east and south-east. There is a low-pressure area upstream in the South China Sea as well, sustaining the flows into the Bay.
Tuesday’s ‘low’ over south-east Bay of Bengal would be able to relay in the moisture-laden easterlies further to the west.
Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the possibility of a busy South China Sea pushing in a fresh circulation into the Bay by the weekend.
It is tipped to keep moving to the west in the Bay basin until December 4 by when it would have washed ashore over the Tamil Nadu coast. It would set off a basin-wide trough that could cover east and south-east Arabian Sea as well.
the low in BOB is working very hard to strengthen & gain moisture & speed… which is why it has hardly moved in the past 24 hrs.. The MJO dry phase not giving the L any moisture.. it has to draw every bit of moisture from south chine sea.. But it could pave the way for a new big storm after it disappears..
which is why the equatorial indian ocean is now looking blank… Just 3 – 4 weeks back was full of life.. lots of moisture… but now just small specks of clouds..
Nida in the pacific now a super typhoon… Wind speeds in excess of 260kmph.. gusts over 300kmph… we should have had similar weather if it wasn’t for MJO.. The SW monsoon got a boost cos of the wet phase of MJO… but our monsoon’s bad luck to get the dry phase..
I would still stick to my prediction of moderate rainfall from saturday night or sunday & Heavy rains from tuesday onwards upto the 5th and then v’ll have to wait & see what happens next
one piece of good news is that the bay around TN and north Andhra has warmed considerably and is currently close to 29.5, 30 degrees celsius… another 1 degree of warming over the next 2 days & MJO moving further away will bring good rains
KeaWeather Archives 
lite rains ere
30th dep?
why a sudden cloudy mornin?…………is it to do with the heat and humidity of ystrdy………ystdy night was very very uncomfortable without AC…like a may night
low was 26c with above 90 humidty thats why it was so uncmfrtbl
A trough in lower levels runs from southeast Bay of Bengal to Comorin area.
is dis the reason of mornin rains?
Forecasted systems update:-
1.A Depression (95B) expected to form around 27th in BOB is expected to move into Tamilnadu coast Good rains for chennai is expected from it
NOGAPS
CMC
UKMET all three support it
Formation of this cyclone is upgraded to fair by JTWC…..soon TCFA will be issued
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
Kea,
wat abt 95B which is in the Bay now….it is headed towards TN coast
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=95B&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
2. cyclone 96W expected to cross Thailand expected to move towards North tamilnadu ….chennai is expected very heavy rains from 4th december
(i) ECMWF – predicting towards TN coast on 3rd
(ii) GFS Model – Earlier Burma now its path is changed to orissa
i am betting on ECMWF model prediction to come true…..!
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009112312!!/
3.The GFS is predicting another stronger system (possibly Depression) expected to form around 8th december which is expected to move towards Srilanka tamilnadu coast….chennai is predicted very heavy rains
this is the sytem kea is taking in this page….!
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
1.95B-already in BOB
2.96W-in Malay Sea – TCFA issued expected to move into Bay of Bengal
3.GFS predicting cyclone near chennai around 8th
So….3 sytems to watch out for
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/11/24/stories/2009112451061600.htm
Read this,, its not giving much hope.. says north bay of bengal could get active.. south bay has lost the temperature
karthik,
its says postively for hosting a system…its still warm enough
These seas are still warm beyond the threshold limit allowing them to host, or facilitate easy passage to, weather systems that choose to move towards Sri Lanka or mainland India.
According to international model forecasts, the Bay of Bengal would increasingly get busier with easterly convective rain bands shown to extend into its northern flanks during the course of the week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projected that the build-up may culminate in the formation of a low-pressure area just off central and south-central Tamil Nadu coast during early December.
wow if it forms near npt.. dats the best chennai could get 🙂 great news pradeep.. sugar for u 🙂
Karthik,
Do you have option to start a new post?
you are asking me kea… i dont think so
ECMWF – update on 96W which is now in Malay Sea
its path is directly towards chennai
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009112312!!/
Its going to North Andhra.. Look at ht the High Pressure marked in north AP.. so an LP rushes towards only a HP
when u r logged on, do you have an option to start a new post. Right now u r a contributer, I think only admin can start one
it will not rush to the H pressure… rather it would travel along the outer bands of an high pressure area..
Is Low depression going to form on 29th?
option is there.. if i click new post.. its posting in my blog kea.. so its not a problem for u 🙂
a lpa has formed over south east bay of bengal of andaman sea coast as per imd’s latest up date.
i dont think the low can become anything more than a depression or deep depression at the most.. because a stronger system is just east of it… will have to wait for next 24 hours to see if it actually strengthens or remains the same.. As far as direction goes.. it is heading straight for south TN & SL cos of the condensed easterlies south of vietnam & malaysia..
tropical depression 27 over philippines & typhoon bongani will disappear by thursday evening… leaving just 2 L areas.. one in BOB and one in the malay sea south of vietnam
2 reasons could take the depression away from us..
1. There is a high pressure area persisting over southern himalayas – North bihar, uttaranchal, sikkim etc.. So the depression could run away north..
2. Sea surface temperatures are higher in the northern bay around bengal, bangladesh and orissa which could again make the depression move north & gain strength from the warm waters..
hey kea… where is your weather station located???
nungambakam main Martin
GFS has changed its forecast again. The Dec 8th Dep isn’t there anymore.
No rains for Chennai until forecast available Dec 10th.
I think we can safely say our monsoon wth 16 rain day has come to an end. Unless it makes a comeback after 10th dec.
And this new low in south east bay is a comedy piece a? 😦
Sea surface temperature in a small area around Myanmar is really high.. 30 – 31 degrees Celsius. Whereas around this small area SST are cold at 24 degrees celsius. SST around TN coast are at 27 – 28 degrees celsius
r we getting a cyclone this year or not?
i live near a lake, and the frogs have been croaking non-stop, every since it rained, the legend goes that when they stop croaking, the rains will stop! hope we get more rains….just hoping…
just had a look at the water wapor… can very clearly see the limits of the High pressure area over china extending all the way upto north BOB.. so if our low turns into a depression & follows norms.. then it would most likely hit southern AP & Northern TN if it can reach here…
remember it has a long way to travel and many times in the past even when cyclones have formed in the middle of the bay they failed to make landfall… so I would give it a 35% chance of coming anywhere near TN… And 65% chance of getting decent rainfall from this system
Thank u Martin for the good news, i can go to bed happy 65% chance of rains is good news!
ECMWF still shows the path of 96W towards chennai
GFS has some what changed and its also coming towards andhra.
i will stick to ECMWF….the cyclone is heading towards chennai…..but it has a long way to go….
no mention of 95B which was designated by IMD as LOPAR
i am leaving from my office….see you guys….my pic will change while accessing from home
wats ur prediction about 95B?
95B – Update
NOGAPS-Srilanka & South TN-Cyclone-30th
EFS-Srilanka & South TN-Depression-30th
CMC-Central TN-Depression-30th
GFS-North TN-LOPAR-30th
UKMET-Tamilnadu-LOPAR-30th
i feel we will get a WML and there will be heavy rains in chennai from 1st
96W-Malay Peninsula
GFS now says its coming towards TN
wow Burma,Bangladesh,Orissa,Andhra and atlast
its showing TN
WOW,Great news
Kea,you should take back your word this monsoon is active and 2 more systems on the trott
——————————————-
Nov 24 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has traced a low-pressure over South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on Tuesday.
The system is likely to become more marked, the IMD outlook said. It may persist during the next three days with a movement to west-north-west – towards the Sri Lankan coast.
The cyclonic circulation tracking model, NGP, by the US National Centrefor Environmental Prediction agreed with this outlook positing the system for a landfall over Sri Lanka and adjoining South-East Tamil Nadu coast by November 30.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
But the Canadian Meteorological Centre took the system to a more north-north-west track that would take it to central Tamil Nadu coast during the same time span.
Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal and South-East Arabian Sea. The IMD has forecast isolated to scattered rainfall over extreme south peninsular India during until the weekend.
The North-East monsoon was subdued during the past 24 hours ending Tuesday morning as a dry phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave began impacting equatorial Indian Ocean and neighbourhood.
But, easterlies still continue to make their presence felt over the Bay of Bengal, more so, to the east and south-east. There is a low-pressure area upstream in the South China Sea as well, sustaining the flows into the Bay.
Tuesday’s ‘low’ over south-east Bay of Bengal would be able to relay in the moisture-laden easterlies further to the west.
Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the possibility of a busy South China Sea pushing in a fresh circulation into the Bay by the weekend.
It is tipped to keep moving to the west in the Bay basin until December 4 by when it would have washed ashore over the Tamil Nadu coast. It would set off a basin-wide trough that could cover east and south-east Arabian Sea as well.
http://www.blonnet.com/2009/11/25/stories/2009112550631600.htm
good night guys
i think i have given a very good news to all
ECMWF-96W
coming straight to TN after crossing into Andaman Sea
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009112412!!/
After 2 days it ll be raining in chennai
Saravanan,
where did you get that info?
I doubt we will have any more rains in November. As of now the next rains are not before Dec. 1st, even that foreast keeps changing daily.
Moderate rainfall expected at many places over coastal TN from tomorrow night.. Heavy showers forecast for saturday night & Sunday..
the low in BOB is working very hard to strengthen & gain moisture & speed… which is why it has hardly moved in the past 24 hrs.. The MJO dry phase not giving the L any moisture.. it has to draw every bit of moisture from south chine sea.. But it could pave the way for a new big storm after it disappears..
GFS-predicting heavy rain on 1st
The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea persists and showing sign of weakening.
hello guys sorry i cudnot come ysterday evening becuz of network problem
yesterday there was heavy rain in k-puram district
i went to melmaruvathur
wen i came to tbm it was hot and burning ..ooh
heavy shrt shower ystrdy evenin about 7clock in my place
luks like this blog is the least activ after the first few blogs…i was also not der….not jon either
mr.martin let ur words cum true
Pennagaram (Dharmapuri dt) 5, Dharmasthala (Dakshina Kannada dt) 4, Cheyyur (Kanchipuram dt) Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt) Tadipatri (Anantapur Dt) and Royachoty (Cuddapah dt) 3 each, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Gingee and Ulundurpet (both Villupuram dt), Thirukattupalli and Thiruvaiyaru (both Thanjavur dt), Kollidam (Nagapattinam dt), Tirupattur, Krishnagiri, Rayakottah (Krishnagiri dt), Thathiengarpet (Thiruchirapalli dt), Udupi, Rapur (Nellore dt), Jamalamadugu (Cuddapah dt), Perinthalamanna (Malapuram dt) , Aminidivi and Udupi 2 each and Maduranthagam (Kanchipuram dt), Ponneri (Thiruvallur dt), Chidambaram, Tozhudur Panruti and Virudhachalam (all Cuddalore dt), Tindivanam (Villupuram dt), Grand Anaicut and Orathanadu (both Thanjavur dt), Needamangalam and Valangaiman (Thiruvarur dt), Chengam and Cheyyar (both Thiruvannamalai dt),Gudiyatham (Vellore dt), Hosur (Krishnagiri dt), Karur Paramathi, Kodaikanal and Vedasandur (Dindigul dt), Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt), Gudur, Seetharamapuram, Tada, Sulurpet and Atmakur (all Nellore dt)1 Prodattur (Cuddapah dt) Vythiri ( Wayanad dt), Thrithala (Palakkad dt) and Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt ) 1 each.
see as i said the rains have occured in kanchi,villu and annamalai districts
unfortunately I do not see any heavy rains for saturday nite and sunday
for ppl who believe in NOGAPS, its predicting cyclone for south TN- SL on Monday
Weather Outlook (upto 0830 hours IST of 30th November, 2009):
• No significant increase in rainfall activity over south Peninsular India.
Hi Karthik, welcome back 🙂
Heavy rains lashed Marthandam, Kanyakumari district today
MJO playing spoilsport for NE monsoon.. Will take another 12 – 15 days to pass over the bay completely… right now just passed right of sri lanka
which is why the equatorial indian ocean is now looking blank… Just 3 – 4 weeks back was full of life.. lots of moisture… but now just small specks of clouds..
John you said you stay in velachery.. has there been any rains in the past 2 days??????
Nida in the pacific now a super typhoon… Wind speeds in excess of 260kmph.. gusts over 300kmph… we should have had similar weather if it wasn’t for MJO.. The SW monsoon got a boost cos of the wet phase of MJO… but our monsoon’s bad luck to get the dry phase..
nida such a beautiful typhoon… perfect shape.. can see the eye of the storm as well..
if nida hits philippines then i guess it will be their 5th or 6th since July if i am not wrong?????
I would still stick to my prediction of moderate rainfall from saturday night or sunday & Heavy rains from tuesday onwards upto the 5th and then v’ll have to wait & see what happens next
one piece of good news is that the bay around TN and north Andhra has warmed considerably and is currently close to 29.5, 30 degrees celsius… another 1 degree of warming over the next 2 days & MJO moving further away will bring good rains
Kea,
Nogaps latest forecast
cyclone 95B it has changed to hit Tamilnadu
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_tropio&dtg=2009112506&prod=prp&tau=132
GFS
predicting 95B as a LOPAR directly towards chennai
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=gfs_tropio&dtg=2009112506&prod=prp&tau=120
there will be atleast a LOPAR near TN coast by 1st
All the models agree to it….our monsoon is not over……!
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india.vv.html
so guys the news is gettin better for us or worse now..?
saw lo clouds comin in from e in saidapet
hows my pic?
pic is ok…but not good as mine….!
its getting better….!
hey i dont like ur pic
latest sat shows the current l.p is strenthenin?
http://www.accuweather.com/world-satellite.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0&site=INDIA®ion=&type=ir&large=1
latest 5.30 pm sat….luks like the low has strenthened..
karthik narayan u are blogging on ur own now?
the clearest sky ever seeable ere now..
the pic was taken from BBC site…its damm good
NCEP-NGP,model shows “95B” will make landfall over Sri Lanka and adjoining South-East Tamil Nadu coast by 30-Nov.
anyways….hope that it will rain by sunday…..! i feel so good blogging on a rainy day
damn gud in the sense?
feel excited blogging on a rainy day
its directly hitting tamilnadu karthik…the one in weather online is old
i thought we wil be recivin rains by sat morn ….only sunday?
wat is the minimum distance(radii distance) of the l.p to give bring rains for chennai?
200km radius or 250?
sunday is wat date?
sunday is 28th we wont get any rains from it
GFS predicting approx 13 cm rain from this system from 30th
Any mood for quiz karthik?
s ready
thu…kevalam 13 centimetra?
expect another hot and steamy day tmrw..
karthik?…..preparin a very tough quiz…..room pottu yojikkiriya?