154 thoughts on “dec 8th dep still heading towards chennai

  1. Forecasted systems update:-

    1.A Depression (95B) expected to form around 27th in BOB is expected to move into Tamilnadu coast Good rains for chennai is expected from it

    NOGAPS
    CMC
    UKMET all three support it

    Formation of this cyclone is upgraded to fair by JTWC…..soon TCFA will be issued

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

  2. 2. cyclone 96W expected to cross Thailand expected to move towards North tamilnadu ….chennai is expected very heavy rains from 4th december

    (i) ECMWF – predicting towards TN coast on 3rd

    (ii) GFS Model – Earlier Burma now its path is changed to orissa

    i am betting on ECMWF model prediction to come true…..!

    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009112312!!/

  3. karthik,

    its says postively for hosting a system…its still warm enough

    These seas are still warm beyond the threshold limit allowing them to host, or facilitate easy passage to, weather systems that choose to move towards Sri Lanka or mainland India.

    According to international model forecasts, the Bay of Bengal would increasingly get busier with easterly convective rain bands shown to extend into its northern flanks during the course of the week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projected that the build-up may culminate in the formation of a low-pressure area just off central and south-central Tamil Nadu coast during early December.

  4. i dont think the low can become anything more than a depression or deep depression at the most.. because a stronger system is just east of it… will have to wait for next 24 hours to see if it actually strengthens or remains the same.. As far as direction goes.. it is heading straight for south TN & SL cos of the condensed easterlies south of vietnam & malaysia..

  5. tropical depression 27 over philippines & typhoon bongani will disappear by thursday evening… leaving just 2 L areas.. one in BOB and one in the malay sea south of vietnam

  6. 2 reasons could take the depression away from us..
    1. There is a high pressure area persisting over southern himalayas – North bihar, uttaranchal, sikkim etc.. So the depression could run away north..

    2. Sea surface temperatures are higher in the northern bay around bengal, bangladesh and orissa which could again make the depression move north & gain strength from the warm waters..

  7. GFS has changed its forecast again. The Dec 8th Dep isn’t there anymore.

    No rains for Chennai until forecast available Dec 10th.

    I think we can safely say our monsoon wth 16 rain day has come to an end. Unless it makes a comeback after 10th dec.

  8. Sea surface temperature in a small area around Myanmar is really high.. 30 – 31 degrees Celsius. Whereas around this small area SST are cold at 24 degrees celsius. SST around TN coast are at 27 – 28 degrees celsius

  9. i live near a lake, and the frogs have been croaking non-stop, every since it rained, the legend goes that when they stop croaking, the rains will stop! hope we get more rains….just hoping…

  10. just had a look at the water wapor… can very clearly see the limits of the High pressure area over china extending all the way upto north BOB.. so if our low turns into a depression & follows norms.. then it would most likely hit southern AP & Northern TN if it can reach here…

  11. remember it has a long way to travel and many times in the past even when cyclones have formed in the middle of the bay they failed to make landfall… so I would give it a 35% chance of coming anywhere near TN… And 65% chance of getting decent rainfall from this system

  12. ECMWF still shows the path of 96W towards chennai

    GFS has some what changed and its also coming towards andhra.

    i will stick to ECMWF….the cyclone is heading towards chennai…..but it has a long way to go….

    no mention of 95B which was designated by IMD as LOPAR

  13. 95B – Update

    NOGAPS-Srilanka & South TN-Cyclone-30th
    EFS-Srilanka & South TN-Depression-30th
    CMC-Central TN-Depression-30th
    GFS-North TN-LOPAR-30th
    UKMET-Tamilnadu-LOPAR-30th

    i feel we will get a WML and there will be heavy rains in chennai from 1st

  14. WOW,Great news

    Kea,you should take back your word this monsoon is active and 2 more systems on the trott
    ——————————————-

    Nov 24 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has traced a low-pressure over South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on Tuesday.

    The system is likely to become more marked, the IMD outlook said. It may persist during the next three days with a movement to west-north-west – towards the Sri Lankan coast.

    The cyclonic circulation tracking model, NGP, by the US National Centrefor Environmental Prediction agreed with this outlook positing the system for a landfall over Sri Lanka and adjoining South-East Tamil Nadu coast by November 30.
    CONVECTIVE CLOUDS

    But the Canadian Meteorological Centre took the system to a more north-north-west track that would take it to central Tamil Nadu coast during the same time span.

    Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal and South-East Arabian Sea. The IMD has forecast isolated to scattered rainfall over extreme south peninsular India during until the weekend.

    The North-East monsoon was subdued during the past 24 hours ending Tuesday morning as a dry phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave began impacting equatorial Indian Ocean and neighbourhood.

    But, easterlies still continue to make their presence felt over the Bay of Bengal, more so, to the east and south-east. There is a low-pressure area upstream in the South China Sea as well, sustaining the flows into the Bay.

    Tuesday’s ‘low’ over south-east Bay of Bengal would be able to relay in the moisture-laden easterlies further to the west.

    Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the possibility of a busy South China Sea pushing in a fresh circulation into the Bay by the weekend.

    It is tipped to keep moving to the west in the Bay basin until December 4 by when it would have washed ashore over the Tamil Nadu coast. It would set off a basin-wide trough that could cover east and south-east Arabian Sea as well.

    http://www.blonnet.com/2009/11/25/stories/2009112550631600.htm

  15. Saravanan,

    where did you get that info?

    I doubt we will have any more rains in November. As of now the next rains are not before Dec. 1st, even that foreast keeps changing daily.

  16. Moderate rainfall expected at many places over coastal TN from tomorrow night.. Heavy showers forecast for saturday night & Sunday..

  17. the low in BOB is working very hard to strengthen & gain moisture & speed… which is why it has hardly moved in the past 24 hrs.. The MJO dry phase not giving the L any moisture.. it has to draw every bit of moisture from south chine sea.. But it could pave the way for a new big storm after it disappears..

  18. Pennagaram (Dharmapuri dt) 5, Dharmasthala (Dakshina Kannada dt) 4, Cheyyur (Kanchipuram dt) Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt) Tadipatri (Anantapur Dt) and Royachoty (Cuddapah dt) 3 each, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Gingee and Ulundurpet (both Villupuram dt), Thirukattupalli and Thiruvaiyaru (both Thanjavur dt), Kollidam (Nagapattinam dt), Tirupattur, Krishnagiri, Rayakottah (Krishnagiri dt), Thathiengarpet (Thiruchirapalli dt), Udupi, Rapur (Nellore dt), Jamalamadugu (Cuddapah dt), Perinthalamanna (Malapuram dt) , Aminidivi and Udupi 2 each and Maduranthagam (Kanchipuram dt), Ponneri (Thiruvallur dt), Chidambaram, Tozhudur Panruti and Virudhachalam (all Cuddalore dt), Tindivanam (Villupuram dt), Grand Anaicut and Orathanadu (both Thanjavur dt), Needamangalam and Valangaiman (Thiruvarur dt), Chengam and Cheyyar (both Thiruvannamalai dt),Gudiyatham (Vellore dt), Hosur (Krishnagiri dt), Karur Paramathi, Kodaikanal and Vedasandur (Dindigul dt), Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt), Gudur, Seetharamapuram, Tada, Sulurpet and Atmakur (all Nellore dt)1 Prodattur (Cuddapah dt) Vythiri ( Wayanad dt), Thrithala (Palakkad dt) and Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt ) 1 each.

  19. MJO playing spoilsport for NE monsoon.. Will take another 12 – 15 days to pass over the bay completely… right now just passed right of sri lanka

  20. which is why the equatorial indian ocean is now looking blank… Just 3 – 4 weeks back was full of life.. lots of moisture… but now just small specks of clouds..

  21. Nida in the pacific now a super typhoon… Wind speeds in excess of 260kmph.. gusts over 300kmph… we should have had similar weather if it wasn’t for MJO.. The SW monsoon got a boost cos of the wet phase of MJO… but our monsoon’s bad luck to get the dry phase..

  22. I would still stick to my prediction of moderate rainfall from saturday night or sunday & Heavy rains from tuesday onwards upto the 5th and then v’ll have to wait & see what happens next

  23. one piece of good news is that the bay around TN and north Andhra has warmed considerably and is currently close to 29.5, 30 degrees celsius… another 1 degree of warming over the next 2 days & MJO moving further away will bring good rains

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