Can somebody please read the following link and say what it means?
http://www.blonnet.com/2009/11/02/stories/2009110250771200.htm
From what I understand, there is a cyclone hitting Gujurat around 10th, GFS agrees to this. Isn’t his very unseasonal? And what do they say about the MJO.
Looking at the latest GFS, not much rain is predicted for Chennai.After 15th, there isnt even any rains. Things are not looking good.
KeaWeather Archives 
good.
that cyclone will disrupt the monsoon.
(just like the cyclone in the bay of bengal did to the SW monsoon earlier this year).
time to start praying for rain.
Its highly unlikely to see a cyclone hitting gujrat need not worry about it
Guys forget it …even the best november for the last 11 years (2005) was just 60cm… 2005 is the best NE monsoon year for chennai.. wat maximum can we get after november 20 this year…. I have lost all hopes… if it rains 7cm lik october.. get ready to come to streets for water… ( i remember the days in 2003 when i had to get water from street corner to my house for my mom with the tenth public exam the next day) …..the golden era of 4 consecutive exceedingly good monsoons have come to a close.. we have to accept this bitter truth and pray in silence
Hopeless bob s not fit enough to host low pressure or depression this season…
I think we could beat the record set in 2003 (85 mm) for the least rain in November since 1998.
rain has reached the tip of sri lanka.. movin northwards… very uncharacteristic as winds blow from the north – north east.. but clouds moving in opposite direction… as per current trend south TN will have heavy rain tomorrow and the rest of south india.. south karnataka, kerala, parts of andhra & TN will get heavy rainfall from 4th onwards..
if anyone has noticed… the winds have picked up considerably.. blowing much faster now..
Wind run is considerably high last 2 days
So guys whats your prediction when will chennai get rain. I am just pissed off with the sun shining.
Cheyyur n parangipetai received 4cm imd says increase in rainfall
shame on the North east monsoon… september is likely to be the rainiest (86mm) for chennai .. is it?.. really horrible to hear 😦
I beleive that there will be good rains this week.latest gfs shows an easterly trough all along the east coast from tomo onwards
Continuous winds from north east indications of easterly wave
hey teh recent imd update is so optimistic for TN 🙂 🙂
Accu predicting 60 mm until Sunday, while weatherunderground predicts 80 mm. Something is better than nothing, Underground seldom predicts more than Accu.
IMD predicts gradual increase in rainfall
From midnight of today we will see gradual increase in rainfall
finally some rain. Its raining now at 4:40 pm
yes there is a drizzle to moderate rainfall in parts of chennai with sun still shining
sun shining bright in guindy 😦
Looks like first drop of rain fell in chennai main just now
Looks like first drop of rain for this nov fell in chennai main just now
no rain in tbm… sun shining
its almost very clear in tbm except for the NNE where there are some formations and cool winds blowing from there ….could recieve rain in another hour or so
Clear in mount too.But i can see rain clouds towards north,northeast and east
wat areas are gettin precipitation now?
Its raining pretty heavily in Kilpauk and Nungambakkam .The Rain gods finally !
cool.. here there is good wind but no rain
there is light drizzle here. It rained for like 10 min. Total 3.6 mm
Yes the cloud formations are lookin more profound here in TBM.Might rain in another half an hour
are we expecting more showers? the clouds seems to show that… wind could be the key
Its raining in mount now
i dunno just a T storm for sure.. nothing in the satellite pic
is there a chance that a low or dep cud form all of a sudden in the bay without anybody noticing??\
One shud form like that dis evening, lets hope…!!!
In 2005 a T storm in early october.. i remember chennai got 15cm.. wats ur bet guys? 🙂
good wind from north now…but the clouds arent lookin threatening…….
hows mt. now is it raining?
suddenly the clouds have got threatening……………….pretty dark
looks like one of those widespread but weak T-storms
definitely it shud have started raining in mt.??
rain has stopped… no clue .. cloud cover is not great again!
Now stopped but chilly and cloudy
very weak…. few drops in guindy
No rain here in velachery,just dark clouds appearing in the s-west
huge dark cloud overhead but no drops still as i speak….
drizzles started just now
heavy rain here very huge drops ……….cud not last long
the rains have passed by
good wind from the east now and good cloud towards the N & NNE
could have another, a probably longer storm ,in an hour
3.8mm…. Isnt it one of the days with pretty heavy rain in chennai this year??
In manapakkam too it rained for 15 mins……but now its stopped…….
I hope its beginning of many……..
Finally started raining here in velcachery 😀
Velachery*
it was just a 10min drizzle,but its still overcast
seems like the clouds in north-north-east have fizzed out
cud be no more this evening
Lots of low cloud formation can be seen towards northeast
gettin really cold… i bet there’s a huge thunderstorm coming…
lots of high thunderstorm cloud… expanding.. along with lower NE monsoon clouds..
suddenly pretty good formations in the north
it ll be nice if we get 2005 type 15cm T storm
luks like its goin to rain pretty heavy
I feel the whole of TN and kerala will have heavy rainfall from tomorrow morning
its cloudy only 2 the nord, east is clear with the moon shining brightly
the clouds have missed TBM and it has moved towards north west
the moon is shining as brightly as ever
pretty dark clouds and unfortunately moving towards the west
the last t-storm moved primarily in the northerly dir. But now the t-storm from the same place moving in perfect west direction
guys,
be happy for the next 1 week.. cos i guess the next one week would be the heaviest rainfall during the NE monsoon this year… i guess about 240 – 260mm of rainfall is expected this week.. enjoy
bet?
where u got tat information martin? according to all sources ,there is very less chance of rain for this week.
heavy falls expected on wednesday & thursday night… all models & estimates say the same thing..
u say only 20-25cm more rain and thats all?
bet karthik… bala u just watch and see..
yes… 20 – 30cms of rain this week to 10 days.. we might have another 10cms during the rest of the monsoon.. which will bring us pretty close to the average.. + or – 20% is considered normal..
i wud have been happier prof if u had said chennai wud recieve 550-600mm this week…………………………………………………………………………I’m really waiting for a very heavy spell
Which means u say we will have to wait till NEM 2010-2011 to see very heavy spells…………….reall sad,tears from my eyes……………….
pamban & Nagercoil already reporting sharp showers…
not more than 45cm this monsoon, u firstly said chennai wud definitely get over 70cm dis monsoon……………..has ur prediction GONE TERRIBLY WRONG??
i doubt it even then..
i guess so.. but still you never know.. nature can change at any time
Wat du yu doubt prof du yu think touching 45 is still difficult
tropical storm mirinae still playing with our monsoon.. which is why you see very less cloud build up over BOB, while Indian ocean & arabian sea have plenty of moisture… pray that it vanishes soon so v can have heavier showers during next week & month
no.. i doubt waiting for next year also.. no use.. i’m not expecting anything like 2005 or 2006 atleast for the next 5 years.. unless there’s some miracle
strong winds from NW and almost W
see +156hrs efs heavy rain for tn https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_ind_ocn_prob_precip_156.gif
then dis year slated to be worse than 2003??
see this +156 hrs showing very hvy rain fr tn https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_ind_ocn_prob_precip_156.gif
all models are predicting heavy rains but some typhoon is playing spoisport
if efs forecast as of today holds true then we r in fr vry wet 10 days
Dont believe those models.gettin really frustrated……
if my eyes werent fooling me i cud se cloud formations just below the moon and chill winds blowing from the east,quite chill……….
Before the 2005 NEM,did any one predicct that year the rains wer goin to be incredibly high?
Hey wtf happening see sun tv news thy r flashing heavy rain in chennai for over hour @all update ur areas here in mount had a mild drizzle at 5 now getting very cloudy rain on the way i think
same here in velachery
Yes,maybe just a passing cloud,it may disappear without rain..
Drizzle started here
drizzle started where,johny?
the moon has been swallowed up by the clouds
Mount now stopped lol
i dont think this ones a passing cloud