Rains from tomorrow?

This is what all models are predicting. I am not sure if it will be heavy though. Most probably heavy rains will start on wednesday or end of week. Accuweather prediciton is for 177 mm rain until sunday.

Weatherunderground predicts 70 mm until Saturday.

129 thoughts on “Rains from tomorrow?

  1. I am new this blog……

    I am really interested in these sort of blogs especially during the monsoon time of predicting and awaiting for the rain being in chennai……….

    If i go with you guys we can expect rain from tomorrow evening………my question is that will chennai get more rains…….as we had very less rain this year……

  2. I still do not see any clouds over BoB…is it all forecast based on numerical prediction only…? Though there are reports of convective clouds over A&N islands, nothing seem to be significant.. Please explain.

  3. I dont think there will be rain tomoro bob is all clear there s a front moving towards bob n it ll take 2 days minimum to reach coastal tn so probably thursday we may see the first rains of nem,there may be increase in cloud formation from tomoro

  4. There is good indication of onset of NE monsoon,in North chennai……. The Dense Clouds are setting in from 12:15pm…. as parts with some drizzle around……We Hope that we get good amount of rain from tomorrow……..

  5. IMD chennai predicts just isolated rainfall until 28th october… so get ready to face the worst ever october in history šŸ˜¦

  6. I feel we will get some rain tomorrow probably in the range of 5 – 10 mm.

    Rainfall activity shoud pick up from Wednesday/Thursday. We should get around 40-50 mm both days combined. Sat/sun heavy rain is forecast for the South, but Chennai will get around 100 mm.
    My prediction for October is 5 + 50 + 65 = 120 mm

    Anyone want to make their predictions?

  7. there are 2 models on IMD site and they are predicting as follws

    MM5 model
    Tue – 0.1 – 2.5
    We – 0.1 – 2.5
    Thu – 7.8 – 35

    WRF model
    Tue – 0.1- 2.5
    Wed – 7.8 – 35
    Thu – 64 – 127

    Hope the 2nd one is accurate

  8. Mr. Narayanan, IMD Predicts Isolated showers tomorrow, Rain at many places over Tamil Nadu on Wednesday and Rain at most places over TN on Thursday and increase thereafter. They are pretty close with their predictions as latest pictures show build up of clouds in the southeast bay which will build up further and take anywhere from 18 – 36 hours to reach TN depending on the wind speeds, sea surface temperature & pressure at the time. Chennai being the northernmost part of TN also doesn’t help as rains could start by tonight in extreme south coastal TN. We guys in Chennai will have to wait a little longer for the rains. My prediction would be Wednesday morning when we would have our first shower of the NE Monsoon. It wont be heavy. 5-15mm Max.

  9. also, predictions are that it will rain over most of south penninsular India with heavy falls over coastal tamil nadu. So keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best.

  10. Total Rainfall in October will not exceed 60mm. The only good rain this month will be on the 29th when it could rain about 30 – 35mm. Very heavy rain is predicted on 4th Nov early afternoon. 150-170mm.

  11. And guys, please look at the 15:30 satellite pics and tell me if my predictions are right or wrong.
    Mr. Raghavan please start believing.

  12. Chennai is covered in Haze 70% of the year. Hence it is difficult to see high clouds and their movements. The only scattered clouds we see in the sky today are the really low and dark clouds.

  13. Ok. Hi Karthik and Mr. Johny Sarcasm? I let my research do the talking not my words. wait fot the 15:30 satellite image and then you will see. don’t jump your guns my friend.

  14. You are finally coming my way johny. High sea surface temperature is a prelude to the NE monsoon or any strong weather front. And that is why if you see my earlier post you will see that I said that the NE monsoon will arrive only when wind speeds, sea surface temperatures & Pressure is right. All these factors are now perfect and have been this way from yesterday night which would mean activity within 48 hours.

  15. no srcsm i dont follow imd sat i m wit weathronlin uk sat update every .30 min n latest sat image at 13.00gmt or 17.30 ist shows nothing@martin

  16. Karthik, what is that cola site you look at? Is it run by Coca cola or pepsi? If you want real accurate predictions. 90-95% accuracy please look up NASA. collate NASA with IMD. Although IMD is about 24 hrs slow. but it still is pretty accurate. collating both these data will give you an almost accurate data.

  17. Karthik, I see Chennai getting anywhere from 700 – 850mm during the next 2 months. NASA and IMD have both predicted an above normal NE monsoon.

  18. But with nature you never know. Like my predictions for cyclone nargis went wrong. I predicted it would hit north Andhra & orissa. But it changed direction and hit west bengal and bangladesh 2 days earlier than expected.

  19. Chance of convective build up tomorrow which could bring Isolated thundershowers due to high sea temperatures not to be confused with actual NE monsoon rains. Think of it as pre monsoon showers.

  20. for sure not below 700. could be a little more depending on whether v get a good cyclone and if that cyclone hits chennai.

  21. Tomorrow’s rains would be limited to places close to the sea. And looking at tomorrow mornings sea surface temps i would be able to tell with a 70% accuracy where the rains would be.

  22. So after I give you my prediction tomorrow then you decide if it falls in North or does it fall in South etc… Wait till 11:00 tomorrow morning. Also rainfall will be trace amounts. A light drizzle or moderate rainfall.

  23. Karthik,
    to answer your question as to wat do I do. I work as a Senior Professor – Maritime life sciences at Indian Maritime University, Chennai.

  24. Have done a lot of research on temperature, wind & pressure in the sea and its impact on fisheries and wildlife. its impact on the formation of cyclones. the ability to predict a cyclone and early warning systems for the Indian coast. These were main areas of research in my 12 years tenure at various universities around asia including Chennai, Vizag, singapore & Hong kong

  25. Did any of you guys see the 15:30 IMD pic? Notice the sudden build up of clouds in the bay and the indian ocean just below sri lanka. Reaching TN by wednesday morning. Please ask the sceptics and sarcastic people to leave this blog if they cant do proper research

  26. johny,

    like i said before please look at the 15:30 or 16:00 pic from IMD kalpana and please know where to keep ur mouth next time you talk without knowing things.

  27. clear skies… beautiful moon light.. no signs of rain .. there ought be atleast few drops of pre monsoon showers right? even that has not come still or not even a sight of few rain bearing clouds.. i have lost all hopes šŸ˜¦

  28. Karthik,
    dont expect miracles. this is nature, it takes its own time and course. However, you would see a build up by tomorrow afternoon or evening. Wednesday morning would be completely cloudy and would have several spells of rain on wednesday.

  29. Ohhhhhhh… bad news people… Another typhoon is going to be formed in the pacific quite close to philippines. This could weaken the NE monsoon and take away some of its moisture.

  30. the system has already reached the tip of sri lanka.. hopefully it can set in over the whole of south india before the tropical storm in the pacific becomes a typhoon.

  31. yup…also theres a western disturbance approaching himalayas which would impede the flow šŸ˜¦ i dont expect miracles.. atleast 5cm rain is all wat i expect…

  32. We are all expecting a good shower. lets see wat happens. I’ll still hold fast to my predictions. Wednesday morning.. 10-15mm, thursday even heavier rainfall.

  33. PS: Guys this is my last post for today. please look at 18:00 pic from IMD. Very encouraging. I cannot see any further. Everything looks good so far for a tuesday late night or wednesday late morning arrival. still hoping for the best.

  34. Wat r u seeing in tat sat?nothing is in the vicinity of bob ther s a cyclonic disturbance over south n west to srilanka going towards africa nothing on our coastal limits n who s sarcastic towards u we r just giving our individual opinion nothing said abt u @martin

  35. Moderate rain in central parts of chennai dont know about other areas there was lots of lightning flashes towards east during late night

  36. Guys,

    update.. Thundershowers in North and North east areas of Chennai last night. Low saturated clouds and light drizzle from 5 this morning.

  37. will have clear skies with passing clouds from 11:00 onwards till the late afternoon, early evening, when it will get cloudy again. Rain late tonight or tomorrow morning

  38. I dont know how many of you guys read my posts last night but I said there was a tropical storm forming in the west pacific and could turn into a typhoon and take away all the moisture. The storm is getting stronger. If it continues then its bad news for the NE monsoon as it would weaken and the max we would get would be 2-5mm a day.

  39. Anyway guys, based on todays satellite pics from IMD, meteosat & NASA. I would say that NE monsoon has arrived but it would take another 24 – 36 hours to strengthen and only then would we get good rain.

  40. Yesterdays activity was due to incursion of moisture winds from bob local thunder storm activity i dont know whether monsoon set in or not still other parts like cuddalore n nagai didnt see ny rain n the wind is also from nw

  41. Did I say something different johny? I told you yesterday itself that there will be thundershowers and isolated falls ranging from drizzle to moderate rainfall.

  42. Martin,

    Actually not, Chennai had 12.8 mm according to IMD. Its really strange though. The rainfal duration was not that much and there is not much water in the streets.

    I may have to clean up my rain collector. It showed 7 mm less. But again diferent areas got different. I went to the beach early mornin and it was pretty muh dry.

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