393 thoughts on “Northbound Mahasen unlikely to affect Chennai

  1. I think jtwc wil b confused to the core…Same situation like cyclone thane…lol at tat time it was intensity n development ,now the track..lol.. 3 models indicating northerly movement and equally 3 models steering it west-nw….. Am completely enjoying at d moment. V never had tis situation bfore.

    • Sel- That is what ive posted in the morning..Too much activity in the basin and models incl JTWC are a confused lot..Heard of Double decker buses and now even trains-(MAS -SBC express)..This has to be a DD system in the indian ocean..

    • Depression would be indicated in surface chart.Here its just a circulation in mid level.ECMWF yet to develop system as a cyclone.Lets wait for later updates it would be picking it up.The same thing happened to 94S it was not developing it to a cyclone but in later part of run it did develop 94S into tropical storm.

    • ABIO10 PGTW 081230
      MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
      SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
      /REISSUED/081230Z-081800ZMAY2013//
      REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZMAY2013//
      AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
      RMKS/
      1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 86.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 89.8E,
      APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
      FORMATIVE BANDING HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY,
      CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
      THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
      POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
      ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
      POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
      MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
      2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 081200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WAS LOCATED NEAR 6.0S 83.9E, APPROXIMATELY
      685 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
      PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 82.6E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
      TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 2.A.(xx) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
      3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING STATUS.//
      NNNN

  2. latsest GFS 12 GMT : cyclone forming a bit more further away from sumatra (than before ! ) movin directly towards chennai , pauses at about 300 kms away and then tracks n-e moving into already troubled bangla !!! hope nature recognizes the fact that we need water and that they have more than plenty !!

  3. Chennai’la
    Cyclonic winds adikuma adikadha?
    Catastrophic floods varuma varadha?

    Kea, i hvn’t invested anything..for both Disaster Mgmt Team and also Bussvanam team..it is u whos the sponsor :-D

    dash,not sure whether it will come or not .I will put 55-60 percent chance of system moving towards TN and AP as of now..The northward movement is based on many assumptions(weakening of high pressure over Mumbai, building of massive HPA over middle east which is extending till north India and another high pressure building over Myanmar which acts as dominant steering winds beyond 4 days guiding the system towards Bangladesh)

  4. Cmc is taking the myanmar ridge as a stronger 1, bringing it near n.tn-s.ap … But jma,taiwan model considering the same ridge extending down further but bringing it twrds lanka-nagai stretch as a strong system.. Tmrw morning update is going to v very ,very crucial &also jtwa position of ridge..

  5. Thanks dash..thing is that we do not have inverter .E lamp is kept ready.. Mahesan can disappoint Chennai…but EB power cut can not …

  6. not a verrrry bad day … good build in convection and actually it has stopped “donating ” t-cells ( not fully but much better than yesterday ) to 94s and 94 s now lacks the convection required for its strength

  7. My fear has come true. The cyclone will miss India completely. I was very skeptical from the very beginning and decided not to get disappointed in the end. less tension more work. more work less tension :)

  8. Senthil, it seems we may see power cuts daily around 9pm..1 hour in the morning n another 1 during nite..EB has already started following this in many areas..be prepared!!! :-(

  9. Looks like this is heading north,we need to wait and see. Even if it hits Chennai,I’ll be missing it :(

  10. Bengloor guys enjoying fishing in troubled waters!!! :-(

    They r enjoying rains when we r going down tracking a cyclone which is goin to form far away from India and goin to head towards Myanmar..

  11. the starting place of formation in both the case of cmc and gfs are almost same ( gfs a little more to the east ) , then they both set into w-nw movement , but cmc says into north tn and gfs says bangladesh !!! i guess the hpa’s will cause the diffrence :D

  12. Sel and Vinodh edhedho pesikaranga..idhuku naduvula jupi’yoda comedy vera :lol:

    Chennai’la
    Cyclonic winds adikuma adikadha?
    Catastrophic floods varuma varadha?

    Kea, i hvn’t invested anything..for both Disaster Mgmt Team and also Bussvanam team..it is u whos the sponsor :-D

  13. Track for this system depends on so many assumptions so there is no point in going “heeeyyy” for one GFS run and ”huhhhhhhh” for other run.Lets monitor the other weather systems closely.

  14. This what GFS is expecting.
    1.for the few days the system remains southward due to HPA over mumbai.
    2.HPA weakens system moves northwestwards
    3.A huge HPA builds over middle east extending till western coast of india and there is also a high over north india not allowing the storm to move furthur northwestward.
    4.At the same time a huge HPA comes from east and centers near south myanmar.
    5.The storm getting sandwiched between the high but only way is to move northward towards bangladesh.

  15. latst gfs model update 06 gmt : again forms in sumatra and moves north till paralell to chennai then west-NW nearing AP then moves east-NE towards orrisa and bengal !

  16. ya models r varying to grt extent…i too thinking of tis from morning.. the confusion arised becos of lacking strong steering environment.. thank god. the shear decreased…if it was sheared ,it would have followed the low level pattern,drifting twrds NE.

  17. imd saying ridge line passing thru 15N….gsm model from jma favouring the system twrds tamil nadu…. i feel ther will be change again from gfs and nogaps.

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