Cyclone Nilam heading towards Chennai

The BOB Cyclone Nilam is finally official. According to the latest track it is expected to cross south of Chennai tomorrow Evening. Expect Heavy to Very heavy rain from tonight as it approaches the coast.

Of Course Cyclones are unpredictable, they can go anywhere.

614 thoughts on “Cyclone Nilam heading towards Chennai

  1. 301500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 82.7E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHEAST OF
    CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
    SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH
    A 300806Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD YET DEFINED LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
    DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI
    ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
    ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND DEMS.
    UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC. TC
    02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
    OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
    NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
    THE LATEST RUN WITH THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND ECMWF IN TIGHT AGREEMENT.
    GFS AND EGRR ARE THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN OUTLIERS, RESPECTIVELY,
    WITH A 150NM SPREAD BY TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE
    TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
    TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AND MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH UNTIL IT MAKES
    LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02B WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU
    36 AS IT SUCCUMBS TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. THERE IS NOW
    HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE IMPROVING AGREEMENT
    BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    301200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND
    311500Z

  2. bbc expecting the storm to move N like a bhopal shatabdi from tonite but it hasnt moved anywhere considerably

  3. Generally NEM rains will be by night and at its peak between 1 and 7 am..dry period bw 3 and 8 PM..expecting heavy rain from midnight in neyveli with light rain starting from 10 PM..midnight heavy rains always wake me and forces me to go out with umbrella..

  4. Cloud cenetypes – Eye scenetypes
    ——————————————
    CDO – Clear(Eye)
    EmbeddedCenter(EmbC) – Large(LrgEye)
    IrregularCDO(IrrCDO) – Pinhole(PinEye)

  5. @jon

    The one you mentioned as actually wrong one.They got the previous one wrong and this is mentioned a bit south. NOAA is correct.

  6. @gopal 666… IMD has been more or less sticking to their path. It is jtwc which kept changing it. So I don’t think they followed jtwc.

    • rain bands not near karaikal jon, they’re in sea.Only high level clouds with light rain in karaikal. This is NOT AN LPA.Remember

  7. Is this IMD’s independent forecast?If yes,it is absolutely bang on with JTWC track forecasts..and 9pm kelambakkam rendezvous!

    • He is on the way to home and he will let you know once he reaches home. It will cross Chennai only. No doubt and Mandaveli will get rain.

      Dash: U have any idea ?

    • kalpakkam needs to be shut down to prevent damage and closed and also shielded.But it can’t be done now.

    • @ Priya… That’s a good question. IMD would have alerted all government agencies. I believe they would shut down operations from tomorrow till it crosses. That’s my guess.

    • No,new storms formed to the south of the band and the initial spot supposed to hit us became white-light blue

  8. But, this system will not reach category one .. This will be a Tropical storm and winds will be somewhere to max 75 km/ph.

  9. Chennai (Nungambakkam) 57.6 mm
    Chennai Airport (Meenambakkam) 50.7 mm

    By how much will this increase?

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  11. Look at the PPI Z Radar. You can see V shaped cloud. The place where V ends is where our LLCC is… Near Vedaranyam.

  12. Wow!!

    Rainfall from 8:30 am today

    Nungambakkam 41 mm
    Meenambakkam 39 mm

    Rainfall from Nilam so far

    Nungambakkam 57.6 mm
    Meenambakkam 50.7 mm

  13. NILAM STATUS :
    Status at 1200 UTC ( 5.30 PM IST):

    Presure : 982.4 mb
    Windspeed : 40 kts
    ANALYST : TS
    LAT : 9.55 N
    LON : 83.1 E
    ANALYST : TS

  14. Cyclone Thane was in an area of 0-5 knots shear for more than 36 hours.If the same SST would have prevailed at that time it would have become a super cyclone but unfortunately it was under very minimal SST but still managed to become a category 1.

  15. REMARKS:
    300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 83.3E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF
    CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH A 300357Z
    AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED
    CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LARGE AREA OF FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
    WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI
    ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
    ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND DEMS.
    UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC.
    TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE
    STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
    LARGE SPREAD BUT ALL CONTINUALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
    TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
    POSITIONED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO
    SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU
    36 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02B WILL DISSIPATE BY
    TAU 48 AS IT SUCCUMBS TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. LOW
    CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
    DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
    IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.

  16. See the 12 Z insat picture… One more set of storms approaching from south east. May take 2 to 3 hours to reach here..

  17. D/Sirs-Thanks your charts and all
    Media Newspaper report are not too clear -The Barometric pressure and Normal Ave Value not even stated -nor the Low centre pressure value ?

    It is now 30th pm a wide spread Depression as of now-off the Coast est 500km -not yet upgraded to TRS i.e.Cyclonic at 6 pm 30th –then why have differing reports . See Hindu Reports etc —
    I observed Sea conditions at Marina to Foreshore and Wind Force 11am-to 4 pm was low–In fact had not yet reached Force 4 Beaufort scale and Wave Ht also not that high –Yes a Wide Depression and lot of Rain certain – slowly may shed its moisture as it passes —
    PL do evaluate this -Regards CaptTR

    • No it’s cyclonic storm Nilam. It is also quite far away from Chennai. These are only the outer bands

  18. only few red dots are >100kms away in the north-east of chennai and i am waiting to see chennai shaded with complete red

    when it will happen?

  19. from sterday every report says that is 500km away from chennai. and now cyclone tracking sites shows rapid weakening flagged.

    will nilam hit the coast? is there possibility that it wil get weaken if it continues in the same position without travelling northwest in the waters?

    please clear my doubts

    • extremely high wind shear knocked it off along with low temperatures in BOB.But now,that’s not the case.This has all odds on its side

  20. Moderate wind shear is pushing main rain bands to a bit SW of system. It is likely to get into the centre of the cloud mass soon as it is moving into low shear

  21. The only anomaly I can find in the readings are the reduction in CTT.Maybe it is just passing over cold BoB waters briefly.

  22. It is not going to weaken till it nears the coast.

    So far the rain came from clouds which are part DD, it has intensified into CS then we have to get this circumference.

    This is yet to reach us.

    • its the northern band tat was causing rain.. the whirl has to condense again from the north bay and wil reach chennai, causing rain..

  23. Rapid weakening flag continues in ssec.Wisc.edu… But not in NOAA… Pressure and wind speed remains the same. So I do not understand what is weakening…

  24. Heavy traffic in chennai….

    from central to choolaimedu.. it takes 2hrs by bike for me…

    from Harrington road to Loyola is fully jammed…
    from ega theatre to pachaiyappa college is also fully jammed..

  25. Classifications of cyclonic disturbances for the north Indian Ocean region (Weather system and Maximum wind speed):

    Low pressure area: Wind speed less than 17 knots (31 km/hour)
    Depression: Wind speed between 17 and 27 knots (32 and 51 km/hour)
    Deep Depression: Wind speed between 28 and 33 knots (52 and 61 km/hour)
    Cyclonic storm: Wind speed between 34 and 47 knots (62 and 88 km/hour)
    Severe cyclonic storm: Wind speed between 48 and 63 knots (89 and 118 km/hour)
    Very severe cyclonic storm: Wind speed between 64 and 119 knots (119 and 221 km/hour)
    Super cyclonic storm: Wind speed 120 knots (222 km/hour) and above

  26. If the system is stationery in water then it mean it is gaining strength.

    I do not know what that flag is mentioning exactly.

    Since it is still in water, it has to be a cyclonic storm.

    The movement must be NNW towards North TN coast.

    Because..

    There is a strong wind shear in central Bay of North AP coast and wind shear in comorin area. Also natural pressure from Indian Ocean towards north.

    Also there is anti cyclonic circulation in central bay.

    So all 3 sides are blocked.

    Hence the system has to move towards TN coast.

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