Posted by: keaweather | February 15, 2012

Dry phase to continue into 2nd half of the month

There will be no respite from the dry phase for a few more weeks. Max and min temp will also begin to rise slowly and we head towards the summer.


Responses

  1. Checkout the new wind pattern… http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Indian-Northern/WAVE000.GIF

  2. Hello all,

    I am back after a long hiatus! Missing the action in this blog for quite some time. Now summer is round the corner and let’s see how Chennai fares this time.

    • welcome back!

  3. slim chance of rain tomo acc to foreca

    http://foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?details=20120301

    cola- sunny

    http://monsoondata.org/wx/chengfs.png

  4. bellary also records 40

  5. veyyiloor 38 and bengloor 35 :razz: chennai 32 but pretty warm today

  6. North Interior TN,SI ktaka burning….Sharp rise in Minimum temperatures could well start the season of those really beautiful evening summer thunderstorms in these regions!!…

    Tiruttani – 39max
    Vellore,Tirupattur – 38max
    Coimbatore,Dharmapuri – 37max
    Mandya,Chamrajnagar – 36max
    Bangalore,Mysuru,Agumbe – 35max

  7. Marked rise in Minimum temperatures across TN….Highest being in Tirupattur..Jumps from 14c degree minimum on Feb 28,to 20c minimum on feb 29!!

  8. Kurnool records 39.5 degrees maximum ….First south indian town to touch the 40′s!

  9. Agumbe 35 Max,10 Min… The difference between max,min a whopping 25 degrees!! …now 25 degrees is the record for this yeaar!

  10. The max temps might read 32-33 in coastal TN…But the real feel for the last two days is 38-39…chennai is sucking hot….Minimum temperatures have risen to 25 degrees..its like May in february!…..since early february chennai had been recordin 32-34,but that really din feel hot…but now thanks to the humidity,it feels real hot!! …..Interiors are a far better place to be in though mx temp is on the higher side!

  11. foreca predicting some showers for tomo

    http://foreca.mobi/index.php?l=101264527

    • Humidity level has been increasing from yesterday evening..easterlies have stopped and winds blowing from S..this was evident from the low clouds which came from SW today early morning..

  12. Much warmer morning today at Chennai, compared to recent ones

    • Clear shift in wind direction. Much more from the south. Guess this means more humidity henceforth.

  13. mysore also at 35 and 11 minimum, big gap between max and min there as well

  14. bangalore crossing 35 yesterday for the first time this year.. unbearable heat in bangalore coupled with dust clouds hanging low, trapping heat and making breathing difficult. Feeling sick in bangalore at the moment

  15. Omg,cyclone in bay?? http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/img/168hgfs_850wind.gif

    • early summer cyclone??

      http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/02/28/basis06/swas/prec/12030706_2806.gif

  16. http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/2012/02/28/271389-India-acquiring-weather-re-connaissance-aircraft-for-better-cyclone-forecasting-NDMA.html

  17. chennai along with other places in coastal tn continues to record mild max temp

  18. The highest diurnal range in temeperture yet….

    Tirupattur records a maximum of 37 degrees and a minimum of 14 degrees…Its a 23 degree difference between day and night temperature

    Hassan at max 33,min 11…Diurnal range 22 degrees!!

    What must the record for the biggest diurnal range in temps in south India?!!…I have no idea!!.

  19. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/02/27/basis12/swas/prec/12031112_2712.gif

  20. Jon, ya..v shldnt beleive it simply with our eyes closed.,..Its just showing some vision to us.. Lets hope 4 it…remember models r 60% dependable..

    • Oh no.. cant be certain of rain, but it certainly means it will get more humid.

  21. Imd gfs predicts a weak system in s.bay on 1st week of march..

  22. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2012/02/24/basis00/swas/prec/12040900_2400.gif

    • u believing tis?? :D

  23. Interesting article in Science – one of the world’s leading scientific journals.

    QUOTE

    Science 24 February 2012:
    Vol. 335 no. 6071 p. 910
    DOI: 10.1126/science.335.6071.910

    NEWS FOCUS

    SCIENCE IN INDIA
    Drawing a Bead on India’s Enigmatic Monsoon
    Pallava Bagla

    India’s booming economy is still a gamble on the monsoon. In any given year, if rainfall climbs more than 10% above a long-term monsoon average, floods ensue. If it declines more than 10% below average, a drought is declared. Slippage in either direction brings misery. For example, a drought in 2002 shrank India’s GDP by an estimated 5.8%. Every meteorologist’s dream here is to accurately predict the monsoon’s arrival, distribution, and departure. Toward that end, this year the Ministry of Earth Sciences is launching a 5-year, $75 million “monsoon mission” to improve the study of complex ocean-atmosphere interactions.

    India receives 105 cm of rainfall on average per year, 80% carried on southwest winds that sweep in from the Indian Ocean from June to September. A winter monsoon also brings moisture from the northeast. Farming is heavily dependent on the exact timing of the rain, especially where it is needed to germinate seed. Since official record-keeping began 137 years ago, the monsoon has never failed to arrive, and it has never delivered less than 75 cm of rain. But the spatial and temporal variations are vast—and this is what befuddles scientists. “Every year, the monsoon is peculiar in its own way,” says atmospheric scientist Jayaraman Srinivasan of the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore.

    The India Meteorological Department here issues monsoon forecasts but has not been able to accurately predict when the worst floods and droughts will occur. “Extremes are really difficult to forecast,” says Ajit Tyagi, the department’s former director general. Everything needs closer study: how clouds form, develop, and die—and, crucially, how global warming will change the monsoon.

    India’s “current prediction capabilities are inadequate,” concedes geologist Shailesh Nayak, secretary for the Earth Sciences Ministry. A big bottleneck, he says, is a shortage of trained scientists. By Nayak’s estimate, over the next 5 years India will need about 1200 skilled meteorologists, but today has only about 350. The ministry has just launched a recruitment campaign.

    In the new initiative, Indian scientists and overseas colleagues will try to adapt computer models developed by the U.K. Met Office and the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction for long-range forecasting in India. The mission will also make use of data pouring in from Megha-Tropiques, an Indo-French satellite launched in October to monitor water and energy balance over the tropics. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune will take the lead in seasonal forecasts and prediction of active and break periods of the monsoon. A key aim is to produce a prediction model that uses open-source software such as Linux.

    The collaborative effort, Tyagi hopes, may at last “unravel the enigma that surrounds the Indian monsoon.”

  24. Keerthivasan, y u said so? Pre-monsoonal tropical activity is not a rare event …each year v wil hav some activity at tis point of time (march-may) but last year,v missed it out..2010 laila,2009 aila,2008 nargis,and it goes on….so lets hope 4 it..

  25. Yes that’s been the case past 2 days. Summer is almost here, 33′s and 34′s will be common from now on

  26. Chennai ap records 35 :o but min was on the lower side at 18

  27. Kurnool records the hottest temperature in AP at 38.2 degrees yesterday….nandigama in Ap coast records AP’s coldest at 15.1 degrees

  28. Well..Chennai AP alos touches 35!!!

  29. Typical End of february/ early march conditions in North Interior Tamil nadu/South interior Karntaka…

    The diurnal range in temperature is a whopping 22 degrees in Tiruttani and Tirupattur….Both stations records max 36 – Min 14…..

    I was in Tiruttani in the evening at around 6pm..it was nippy…And in night till 8pm it was very nippy around tiruvallur….Coimabtore-Salem-Dharmpauri-Tirupattur -Vellore will be similar…The heat is only for around 1 hour in the noon…

  30. Over 2,000 automatic weather stations to be set up on Maharashtra

    • Cloud mass approaching the coast from bay..

  31. Hottest day of the today and also the coldest night of the month

  32. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2012/02/21/basis00/swas/prec/12040412_2100.gif

  33. Another cold February day

    • where?

      • Terrific question.. asingapattar Kea :-D

  34. BIAL also recording 12 degrees minimum this morning.. bangalore city a warm 17 degrees

    • if it had been 17 in chennai the post would have been – “freezing 17 degrees” :P :D

      • tats the best way to convince urself wen bengloor constantly recording a max of 34 for the past 15days :razz:

        • doesnt feel very hot here though it reaches 34.. falls off quickly to 22 or so by 8.30 in night.. though we feel 22 is a little too warm :P

          • ya it doesnt feel hot if u sit inside an air-conditioned room :D

      • hahahaha – thats soooo true :)

  35. mysore, somehow managing to stay super cool while the rest of the state burns.. min temps between 10 – 13 in the last week.. max has crossed 31 only once. remaining a cool 29 yesterday

  36. Nunga crosses 32 for the first time this year

    • http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/12001976.cms

      • http://www.ubislate.com/

    • The saving graces are the evenings are still pleasant and the max doesnt last too long.

  37. Cfs model shows the possiblity of pre monsoon tropical disturbance in bay on 1st week of april…

    • Murjan coming! Murjan coming!!! :-o

  38. an article about Chennai’s radar facility and how it helped to track several cyclones in recent times in 2nd page of Hindu

  39. chennai 31
    bengloor 34

    bengloor has been consistently beating chennai in terms of max temp over the last 2 weeks :razz:

    • Sat image shows massive clouds coming from S/SW…but actually they are cirrus!

      • http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/sat/2012/02/22/inir1100.jpg

      • yep.. useless clouds

  40. Peninsula and its water gets heating up…sat image reveals it…now the active spot is on karnataka and maharastra..soon it wil cover tn ,ap,kerala..

  41. 2011 – thunderjove
    2012 – jupijove
    2013 – ???

    We welcome suggestions for a new name! :mrgreen:

  42. hey arjunlv,

    u r a banker..but jupijove is a bunker…10th class bunker :lol:

  43. respite from the heat only after the 2nd week of march for interior Karnataka & Tamil Nadu. Temp’s will stay around the 31 – 34 degree mark in bangalore, what will make things worse is that minimum temperatures will also start rising over 19 degrees from next week onwards.

  44. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/At-39-1C-Mumbai-experiences-hottest-Feb-day-in-46-years/articleshow/11984209.cms

  45. Freak weather in Mumbai, a week after recording the 3rd lowest temperature ever, Mumbai has recorded the highest temperature in the last 46 years for february yesterday

  46. Tanjore Fog

    http://twitpic.com/8mmvrj

    http://twitpic.com/8mn05d

  47. Japanese forecasters had predicted below normal SWM this year. Now US and UK models agree with it.

    • Where? Pls show me…….

      • Below normal SWM -> Deficient rainfall over Kerala -> Excessive heat in TN -> Record Thunderstorm activity over North TN -> Monsterous squalls crossing Chennai -> Ultimately leads to Excess NEM 2012 :mrgreen:

      • Check todays BL

  48. Ponting dropped from CB series. Might retire from ODI or even international cricket tomorrow.

    When will BCCI learn? As things stand tendulkar, dravid and laxman will play India’s next test.

    • severe tstorms expected later in Brisbane

  49. There is a rumour that “5-day banking” will be implemented from March 15, 2012…any idea about this RBI proposal…any bankers here??? :-)

    • http://www.facebook.com/5daybanking?sk=wall&filter=12

    • @ originaldashman.. Would be fantastic for me if it is implemented! I heard the news too! I am a banker!!

    • Nowadays even Fog is trying to make this blog active! :lol:

  50. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/Fog-covers-city-36-flights-delayed/articleshow/11960090.cms

    http://vaartaahaa.blogspot.in/2012/02/thick-fog-in-chennai-feb-20-2-2012-air.html

  51. visibility was 25meters at 8.30 :)

    • signs of summer. Max could rise 1 celcius per week from now on

      • Dry Westerlies from today :-)

        http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday

        http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain

        Good signs of pre-monsoon super cyclone in April :-) :-)

  52. it seems flight services has been disrupted

  53. heavy fog till 9.even temp dropped mina was at 22deg half an hour ago

  54. Sudden unexpected extreme fog with light winds engulfs not only Chennai but entire coastal TN from early morning..actually i was able to view the fog particles-micro droplets-passing thru the air like dust!

    • http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-wv.htm

      Water vapour image

    • what a morning at Besant Nagar..6am to 9am was a sheer delight..like being in the hills..yes,I could also see and feel the microdroplets..it caressed me and I could feel the moisture…too good!

      • yes! it was like drizzles of pin pricks.

  55. WHAT is happening? EXTREMELY foggy in BN – visibility is just around 10-15 meters!!!

  56. cyclone taking the U turn and heading for madagacar again. so in for battering twice within 7days from the same storm :) :)

    http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1212.gif

    • Hiya.. 8-) so, is it coming straight towards Kerala and trigger early onset of SWM 2012 in Feb itself??? :lol:

      • Didn’t you know. SWM going to be skipped in 2012, we are heading directly into NEM.

  57. yest’s temp

    bengloor-33
    tirupattur-35
    trichy n vellor-34

    summer is almost ere

    chennai-31 :|

  58. kea,

    follow these steps in this website to make ur website faster… :)

    https://developers.google.com/pagespeed/#url=http_3A_2F_2Fwww.kea.metsite.com_2F&mobile=false

    • hey..Kea is planning to shutdown this blog soon due to lack of response..whatz d need to run it faster??? :lol:

      • hey Stuns..stunned to see that message?? Even Kea will be..! :-o

        http://www.facebook.com/naveen.stuns :-P

      • http://thunderjove.wordpress.com/

        @jupi, why not updating ur site??

    • 73 out of hundred is a higher number meaning little room for improvement.

      Not worth the time wasted on it

  59. Cloud movement direction changed cmpletely …now its 4m south-s.east….

    • I noticed it today morning itself!

      Is that selcyclone’s photo?? :mrgreen:

      • aama kumar..

  60. finally new delhi touches double digit mark at 11 deg

  61. Kar, this is not going to be a severe summer due to the la nina. If this is true, summer will be nor wet too. Our best hope will be rains from south west monsoon

  62. 2004 Feb 16……..One of the Hottest februaries for South India….

    I can remember these figures….

    Salem 42 degreees…
    Vellore 41 degrees
    Tirupattur 40 degrees
    Coimbatore 39 degrees
    Bangalore 38 degrees…

    But what resulted is one of the best april/mays…with heavy rainfall…..Vellore touched only 41…Tirupattur dint cross 37…Bnaglore dint cross 34 that may!!

    • Bangalore 38 in feb 2004??
      max was 34,1 in feb 2004 tat too the 29th..
      even all time high for feb in blore in 35.9 in feb 2005…

      http://www.imd.gov.in/section/climate/bangaluru2.htm

  63. With 10 ARG stations coming up in chennai….the nearest to Tambaram is the one in Kolapakkam…Kolapakkam is a small village some 3-4km from Vandalur towards kelambakkam…Actully this ARG station is gonna be situated inside the Vandalore zoo area… :)

  64. Yesterday Bellary recorded 38 degrees maximum….Summer on its way…..
    Bangalore records 32 degrees yesterday and yesterday’s temperature in tirupattur was 34max-17min….Max = min*2…

    Tirupattur records a maximum temperature of 35 degrees today but minimum falls to 19 degrees…..

    “With respect to Tamil nadu plains,this season from Feb 5-Mar 5…Tirupattur is the hottest place in the day as well as the coldest place in the nights”…with max temperture hovering between 30-40degrees(with an average of 34degrees)….and minimum hovering between 10-20degrees(with an average of 17C)…

    After march 5,Tiruttani and vellore will becom the hottest place in TN..

  65. whats that blr blr blr smiley????

    • ;-) :-? :-) :-D :-o 8-O

      • :idea: :mrgreen: :lol: :idea: :arrow: :roll: :twisted: :roll: :oops:

        • :!: :?: :evil: :cry: 8-) :-P :-x :-|

          • :P :-P :razz:

  66. @kea
    good question. :) the anomalies say that rainfall and temp is expected to be above normal within these months FMA and MAM (consistent with la nina) :wink:

  67. am not expecting rain now..am surprised to c nw pacific is active even at tis point of time..all bcos of la nina..i dnt knw whether v could get any slim chance of it..

  68. kea dont go by the means and average…… go by the anomalies…. :wink:

    • Sel….mazhailam onnum varadhu….edho silvandu (jupi) pecha kaetu Kea’ya asinga paduthiriyae!
      :-D

    • what do the anomales say?

  69. how come some ppl r expecting rains in Feb and Mar? This is not NEM. Any rain that comes during this period including April is a freaky shower.

    Chances of rain (thunderstorms) increase only during 2nd half of May due to excessive heat buildup. Lets hope for a hot April and May.

    • chances of a freaky shower is like 1 in 10 years

      • Is that a typo in your entry (“fry phase”) or are you predicting an early summer?

        Nur der BvB!

  70. mamae ,anaconda clouds aussie layum form ayiruku….
    https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/417449_229924193767600_173445382748815_496028_883337898_n.jpg

  71. so nxt rain is expected only in may?? :(

  72. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php :)

    • i just coulnt believe…s.china sea holding a chance for a system???..

  73. hahaha “fry phase to continue for few more weeks” i totally disagree….. because the wet phase is here :)


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