Posted by: keaweather | December 29, 2011

Heavy rain and wind expected from evening as cyclone nears coast

Extrememly heavy rain is possible towards evening and night. Landfall is expected Friday early monring close to Puducherry.


Responses

  1. Rainfall from 8.30 am today

    Ennore – 38
    Madhavaram – 31
    Gumidipoondi – 23
    Nungambakkam – 21

  2. CTP:
    @15:27 One E B post fell down at Thiruvanmiyur jn near west avenue.Vehicle from Thiruvanmiyur to new bridge diverted to L B rd,Adayar to reachS V patel rd

    via CCTP Facebook site

  3. The places under the specified coastline may get extreme rain of >25cm and xtreme storm surge… http://tinypic.com/r/24fh301/5

  4. the SRI doppler is not good as usual. But things may change suddenly and a torrential downpour can be had any time.

    The windspeed is also noticibly weak for a cat 1 storm approaching the coast.

  5. hi what time night or morning for thane to cross what will be the wind speed? how is pondi now is it similar to chennai or is it rainging very heavy

  6. I too noticed it.

  7. congrats kea your blog featured in the http://www.westernpacificweather.com

    http://westernpacificweather.com/2011/12/29/tropical-cyclone-thane-29-dec-2011-evening-update/

    • Pls see this track forecast and Jeff Masters has an excellent record in prediction. I have heard about him being a great Hurricane Hunter. Here is the track that the wunderblog gives:

      http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=11.8&lon=82.1&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0

      • Not to correct but Jeff Masters does not write those forecast, its a mirrored image of JTWC or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast from the U.S Navy and Air force. His analysis though are always great and very informative, that is right as well he as part of the Navy Reservist back in the 80s I believe flying into several hurricanes.

        http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html

        • Thanks and his written experience of Hurricane Hugo in the Carribean was fantastic. Anyway, if the mirrored image is a reasonably accurate forecast, then, Pondy and Cuddalore will bear the brunt right?

          • Sadly it looks that way, and radar/ sat imagery is really leaning that way as well. I hope people are paying attention to the warnings and are taking the proper precautions. Going to be a dangerous storm, doesn’t help its making landfall at night as well.

  8. wich one is stronger u feel???
    jal:
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bf/Severe_Cyclonic_Storm_Jal_2010-11-07_0530Z.jpg/450px-Severe_Cyclonic_Storm_Jal_2010-11-07_0530Z.jpg
    thane:
    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/LATEST.jpg

  9. Kea, how much rain so far?

    • almost 20

      • That means little rain there.

    • Hi here in Gopalapuram and Royapettah, not much rain. Can we safely say that thane is heading westThat is what most sites seem to say and also director of IMD,

  10. So far 20-23 mm at my home in Madambakkam.

  11. WTIO31 PGTW 290900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (THANE) WARNING NR 015//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (THANE) WARNING NR 015
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    WARNING POSITION:
    290600Z — NEAR 11.8N 82.1E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE AND RADAR
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 82.1E

    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    291800Z — 11.8N 80.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    300600Z — 11.7N 79.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    301800Z — 11.8N 77.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    REMARKS:
    290900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 81.7E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER WITH A 15-NM EYE.
    A 290245Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
    THE CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
    SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO WEAK, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD
    CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE. THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90
    KNOTS. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
    TAU 12, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER INDIA BY TAU 36. WITH THE
    EXCEPTION OF WBAR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
    NNNN.

    JTWC is still looking CUDDALORE as landing point.

  12. Incredible Long band of clouds seems to be heading for chennai coast…Its just 25 kms from chennai coast…..Probably in another 45 min heavy rain would start in chennai

    • yes, waiting for the big rains to start, nothing substantial so far.

  13. Selva, where will it cross? What is your opinion?

  14. Outer fringes now touching vellore…..Bangalore is warm and sunny

  15. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-caz.htm

    Appears Eye has moved north…..Is it again planning a new trip…closer to AP coastline…..Probably just zig…zag movement

    • tats not d eye

      • Whole system seems to have nudged up a bit to the north.

        • Yes….u r right…..It seems to be moving West…North..West

  16. New Update / Video posted from western pacific weather. As I stated earlier any photos or videos shared after this storm passes I would be greatly appreciated.

    Fingers crossed though everyone stays safe as this storm moves ashore.

    http://westernpacificweather.com/2011/12/29/tropical-cyclone-thane-29-dec-2011-evening-update/

    • good info :)

    • nice to see …and wat abt 98w in s.china sea…?? v r hoping for its remnant to enter in bay waters through malay peninsula..even ncep gfs ,imd and ,thai nwp model predicts the same…post some info on tat in ur upcoming updates…

      • Will do, another one our Authors talks about it in his update this morning as well. But That area is defiantly something to watch here in the near future after Thane dissipates. For now though Thane defiantly top of the issues today.

        http://westernpacificweather.com/2011/12/29/se-asia-weather-update-29th-december-2011/

    • Thanks for the updates again Rob

  17. continuous track on west means where is exact land fall please tell – Jon

    • btw 11.8 n 11.9 as predicted by jtwc

      • heavy rains yet to strike chennai

  18. Rapid Weakening flag off

    • Radar shows the eye moving north of 12N

  19. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_06B/webManagerIR/last24hrs.gif

    • continuing to track west so good news for us :)

      • @Jon- we need a slight NW so that the Northern quadrant loaded with Moisture slams into Chennai..current 11.8 movement will restrict the outer nothern quadrant to Kalpakkam

        • hmmm s slight wnw mvmt will be really gud

  20. latest news cyclone will cross mahapaliburam

    • which news?

  21. something is amiss here..is Thane getting sheared like Jal?No rains and No winds

    • not at all..u just c the rain after 5pm..

    • jal never had tis much moisture content in it so even if thane weakens it will produce some serious rains

  22. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20111229.1000.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.06BTHANE.80kts-963mb-118N-821E.100pc.jpg

  23. Eye seems to be more fragmented now.

  24. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indian/southern/vis/LATEST.jpg

  25. So far no big rain, no juice, no big wind here.
    Normally cyclone will not bring much rain right?
    If it is mere low pressure or depression it would
    have brought more rain. No thril so far.

  26. Always cyclone are heavy rain is going away from Chennai.But first imd said to hit Chennai but it not happens why always pondy to nagai stretch. this time also same will happen unless any miracle happens only Thane will hit .Today in Chennai it not continuous wind wind speed not excess 45 km per hour. Already pondy and cuddalore started heavy rain. BBC predict for Chennai what a surprise now a days BBC it not 100% right prediction any latest 3.50pm update of how many kms from Chennai or pondy

  27. Choose the winner between the two

    WU – (34 mm Thu pm + 180 mm Friday am + 18 mm Friday pm) = 232 mm

    Cola – around 200 mm

    • Easily COLA

    • None of the above. Kea is the winner (who predicted < 70 mm) :-)

  28. Going to cross at 85 – 100 knots

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2011/io062011.11122906.gif

  29. http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai

    look at this
    kea u may be right 70 mm

  30. Heavy rain lashes.

    • 11.80 -81.76
      11.80 -81.70
      11.80 -81.64

      Adhu enna vilayatuthanam?…koattu melayae poitruka? :-D

  31. What a rain!

    • where?

      • Poonamalleè.

    • http://www.foreca.com/India/Chennai

  32. There is a cause for concerm.

    Why has the wind speed dropped for the first time today? It was suppose to increase to unimaginable proportions by tonight.

  33. Count Down Started For Heavy Rains and winds :

    For Coastal TN..

    The Next 2 hrs will show us the correct landfall place….

  34. guyz tomorow tiruvallur kanchipuram schools and colleges may be announce for leave ????????????bcuz i have semester exam ……….

  35. dont compare thane with jal…. wait and c after 5pm…it will be deadly…and btw it started to pour again…

    • Sun News – The windows of all state transport buses coming into Chennai should not be closed to prevent toppling of vehicles by minimizing the effect of cyclonic winds

  36. AT 3.30 PM…

    Lat :11.8 N

    Lon : 2.1 R

    WIND : 80 Kts

    Pres : 967 mb

    Wind speed is 80 kts…( very severe) 148.16 km/h

    • Terrific system this. If the strength can be maintained up to -5% at the landfall time…it would be one of the most furious cyclone to hit North TN coastline…lets keep our fingers crossed…

  37. pouring here like anything with strong winds!!!!!

    • where r u?

      • thunder,here too…

  38. pressure dropping rapidly :)

    • where can i see the details?

      • kea site has all details

      • http://kea.metsite.com/

  39. Thane seems to be for Pondy..it has been on such a strict W journey,any NW looks to be ruled out

  40. i think cyclone thane like as jal …………………..where is heavy rain ?

  41. very very heavy rain….

    • area?

      • at sea?

  42. I see red spots over the city..but no lashing rains..why?

  43. Dash -18.28 mm so far in our area :)

    • thnx Joel.. :-)

  44. steady rains have set in with decent winds(40-50kmph )

  45. calm weather on 28th evening with “thane” fringe reaching chennai…
    http://tinypic.com/player.php?v=312d8o6&s=5
    on 29th ,thane started to lash chennai but tis is just a beginning..
    http://tinypic.com/player.php?v=fvk37c&s=5
    stay with us for more updates..

  46. what is exact landing position of thane its chennai, puducherry,or cuddalore where.any one known update quickly. how many kms fro pondy or chennai.But satillite picture shows its affect deltas

    • Vathalagundu

  47. Rain stopped.

  48. the correct location is 11.8N 82.1E. The center has not gone anywhere, its in the same position

  49. Though the radar looks deadly rains are not that much heavy.
    Also surface winds are not picking up as expected.
    Let’s see what Thane have in secret for us.

  50. eye is back where it was!! west of Pondy…system is still moving along the 11.9 line

  51. The eye is once again visible in Pondi Latitude….the slower THANE moves,the more the rain we get!

  52. The cyclone’s northern edge looks reddish….it will make a circular movement and directly hit the Chennai Area…..Chennai in for very heavy rains…all places here could notch up 10cm by 8.30Pm tonight itslef!!

  53. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

  54. Report of “Thane” at 2.30 pm IST Thursday:

    System has moved NW, and lies 250 kms west of Chennai.Superimposed latest position on yesterday’s Map above.

    Expect more rains in Chennai as the storm moves NW, forecasted earlier by Vagaries.
    Currently at 2 pm (IST) Chennai is a pleasant 22c and overcast with light to medium rains. Winds have notched up to 30 kmph by afternoon.
    Very heavy rains and winds expected in Puducherry as the SW segment of the cyclone approaches the region

    Posted by Mr.Rajesh in his website

    • Oh..no……JTWC has removed Thane!!!

      http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

      • a blunder

        • http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

  55. I am very confused..see the latest radar..the eye seem to have gone up North..not NW..plain Northwards..is it an error..if this turn is right,it is heading to ongole / Machilipatnam!

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-caz.htm

  56. Chennai weather: Fast and furious cyclone headed to city

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/Chennai-weather-Fast-and-furious-cyclone-headed-to-city/articleshow/11286933.cms

  57. my god…..thane at 80knts……………………………..

    • sel…which report says that thane is at 80knts?link please..

      • got it..sel

  58. heavy rains lashing now

  59. 2.30pm http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20111229.0900.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.06BTHANE.80kts-963mb-118N-821E.100pc.jpg

  60. Pouring now…This is the start of deluge!

  61. pouring here for the last 10 mins in annanagar

  62. Pouring in Madmabakkam

  63. Chennai can expect some very heavy rains since northern periphery continues to remain strong

  64. pouring for the past 10min

  65. y this kolaveri
    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/caz_chn.gif

  66. any latest updated rainfall prediction for chennai?

    • Thane entering the so-called “Bermuda Traingle of Chennai”..what is goin to happen?????

      • Cyclone will be defeated by chennai.

  67. Very heavy rain pouring.

    • area please??

      • Poonamallee

        • then sure chembarambakkam water will cross the roads of poonamalle-tirupathi

          • No. Kunrathur and porur area will be affected.

  68. Heavy spell started in BN.

    • From radar, it appears this is the business end of it. Promises to be a long, intense spell.

      • http://beta.bbc.co.uk/weather/1264527

        Radar shows Thane losing eye and shape

  69. gopal,it means eye has elongated to 15nm…now eye region is of 15nm or circulation center is of 15nm…eye is exposed well.so they said it intensified..

    • got it..i.e.so aan approx 35km stretch can get flattened from the centre of the eye when it crosses..the zest resort and the 15km their South and North

  70. I think this will cross chennai. And hit it hard.

  71. Moved northwards now 12.4, 82.14.

    Looks like kea’s words are coming true, this is gonna yield < 70 mm

    • Thane is moving in zigzag manner…so the prediction can’t be exactly…

      Now the location is 11.81 -81.80 as 14:00 IST

  72. shows 2 consecutive 12+ readings..is it wrong?if it is right,system has moved North- west and with the strengthening JTWC says,can be deadly for Chennai..but where are the rains?

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt

  73. radar is looking deadly for hours.. but nothing is moving inland.. why is it so??

    • bcoz past 1 hour the movement n-e

      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/text/06B-list.txt

      • it again shows 11.8 @ 830 reading..thats sad

  74. Warning 15 from JTWC:THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER WITH A 15-NM EYE..what does it mean?It maintains landfall at 11.7 N

  75. Latest JTWC:

    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER WITH A 15-NM EYE.
    A 290245Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
    THE CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
    SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO WEAK, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD
    CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE. THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90
    KNOTS. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
    TAU 12, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER INDIA BY TAU 36. WITH THE
    EXCEPTION OF WBAR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//

  76. Affected Population

    Up to 3.58 million people can be affected by wind speeds of hurricane strength or above. In addition, 0.12 million people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.

  77. sorry- the eye is back..still going W –in line with Pondy landfall..will it take a decisive turn towards Chennai?nailbiting next few hours!

  78. THE CYCLONE LIES TO THE WEST OF AN
    UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL,
    WITH FAVORABLE BUT DECREASING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO MOVING OVER WATERS WITH LOWER HEAT
    CONTENT THAT SHOULD, ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    DECREASING OUTFLOW, INDUCE SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL

    JTWC still expecting landfall @ 11.8 N only

  79. 11.8 81.7 jtwc

  80. see the latest radar– the eye has disappeared?

    • or become smaller? Do see a small white patch there in the middle of the circulation

  81. Analysis based on advisory number 14 for THANE-11, published on 12/29/2011 00:00 UTC
    •The storm is: active
    •Current country: India
    •Current position: 82.7, 11.89
    •Alert level at current position: orange
    •Basin: NorthIndian
    •Current strength: Cyclone with Saffir Simpson category 1
    •Current maximum sustained wind speed: 38 m/s, 74 kt

    GDACS report created on 12/29/2011 4:10:14 AM.

  82. Very Hvy rain here but winds r just pushing it fast so its not stable.,am sure there is increase in wind speed and rain.

    • Radar looks … red.

  83. Hi Kea ,

    My friend is staying there in Zest resort . I have informed him about the cyclone .

    • @gopal666

      http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/qlm.htm
      :-D

      • What doest it mean . its not going to land there . how good is that for chennai

      • Same QLM predicted THane would make landfall in North AP, 2 days back :P

  84. radar looks deadly :) but not reaching :(

  85. there is a definite NW tilt now..but the eye is also weakening..hope it does not take a complete N turn and go to S AP

  86. 12.31 -82.40

    • thats error for sure, check the next update.

      • 12.47 -82.26 as of 13:30IST shows moving n-w

  87. Rain stopped completely but heavy wind.

  88. s it has moved wnw acc to radar

  89. Power gone.

  90. Radar image shows system is away 200 KM from Chennai

    Movement towards w-nw

  91. Kea, Change the warning color to RED in Kea Website :-)

  92. Enjoy!!

  93. Its hardly drizzling , but wind gusts are pretty heavy to cause huge ripples on standing water

  94. Very heavy rain now.

  95. Red Message : Danger Danger. PPl in ofc like me .. go home.

  96. Foreca changed the prediction. now the cyclone is moving SW after landfall which was NW before.
    http://foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain

    • :(

      • Jon, dnt worry, We will get good rains. It will be a disaster if Cyclone crosses over chennai.

  97. Still in 11.87 latitude. No sign of North movement?

  98. jon
    power came!!!!!! :D

  99. Heavy rain in poonamallee.

    • 11.87 -81.80 ON FLG

  100. Omg,brown turning red dot east-n.east of chennai…. Luks threatning as kar mentioned.

  101. deadly rain bands approaching chn.look at the lat radar :o

    http://imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm

  102. its hvy now along with stormy winds

    • Which area? In Neelangarai-ECR its just started drizzling

      • mount

    • Pretty heavy in BN too. Wind hasnt increased too much

  103. Jon,am missing it..now am using my mob.so let me knw the current position and a previous one.

    • its just my assumption seeing the lat radar.wait for another half an hour

  104. i think it has started movin wnw :)

    • No as of now.

    • north? If it does, dont rule out andhra landfall. Chennai could get 400-600 mm from it

      • ??

  105. OMG…SEE THE CURRENT UPDATED RADAAR…THE BEST I HAVE SSEEN EVER SINCE I STARTED FOLLOWING IT!

    • school over?

    • ya

  106. rapid weakening flag on

    • It got flagged on 26th night as well(430-8 pm GMT), but did’nt weaken much then. Lets wait and watch

  107. I see someone posted a link to my site here “westernpacificweather.com” thank you very much and also glad someone did cause now I see the reports and great information flowing here. If anyone wants to pass any pictures or videos to me I would love to use them in my next video update.

    • its our pleasure.sure we will try to take some videos :) :)

      • Robert,

        What are the chsnces for this storm to move closer to Chennai ? What are the rainfall intensities for chennai

        • I think there is a chance it could wobble North just prior to landfall. Mainly due to friction that often occurs afters systems just make landfall. The models at this link display that occurring. http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp1t.png

          As far as the rainfall intensities that all depends on if some of those bands hit directly over the city. Looking at the most recent rain microwave imagery that seems to be the case and over 50-60mm an hour is highly likely. Defiantly farther to the south will see even more so above 100 an hour.
          http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/tc_ssmis/rain/2degreeticks/thumb/20111229.0245.f18.x.rain.06BTHANE.75kts-967mb-119N-827E.99pc.html

          I hope that helps….

          • Thanks Rob

  108. Omg..IMD predicts THANE to cross pondi as a VERY SEVERE CYCLONE! ….destruction!

  109. Cola prediction for Chennai is very scary. 160 mm in 6 hours

    http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/chengfs.png

    • omg!!!! if it becomes true…then Chennai will be in water since almost all the lakes are at full capacity because of ne monsoon

  110. Now at 11.87. Is it slightly moving South?

  111. It will weak from tonight.

  112. stormy winds picking up now

  113. If the system make a lanfall in chennai, i wil turn to stormchaser 4m weather forecaster to record a live coverage 4m marina to tiruvanyumir.

  114. The storm is at peak strength according to IMD

    THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 976 HPA.

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm

  115. It usually happens everytime.. Nisha din touch the headlines much bcos of mumbai terror attack… even laila had the same,.. jal was free 4m all but it dissipiation made a big headlines…and now thane under lokpal shear… Wat 2 do?

    • i think obama’s visit was during jal :D

    • its getting very dark here in royapuram

  116. next 3 JTWC updates crucial for Chennai

  117. now radar down

  118. 45 % of votes are for over 75 km/hr wind. Maybe I should I included another option for 100 km/hr. I thought its too much for Chennai

    • s…i too searched for the option..due to the non-availabilty i vote for the maximum

  119. power out!!!!! :(

    • it will return only by tomo nite :D :D

  120. as expected w n n continues to be the strongest part of the sys

    • If the same intensity approaches mumbai it would be headlines news everywhere, or even a small drizzle in bangalore.

      • they will issue warning tomo nite after it crosses the coast :mad:

        • they will say heavy rain to continue for 48 hours and we wil have sunshine on saturday

        • Baffoons! It maybe a catostrophic event.

  121. Cyclone worry: SOS to rescue 700 stranded fishermen

    Read more at: http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/cyclone-worry-sos-to-rescue-700-stranded-fishermen-161722?pfrom=home-topstories&cp

  122. northern periphery sucking up all the moisture so expect flooding in chen

  123. I’m in Singapore,someone please take some videos of the rain

  124. has any area been flooded yet?

    Its very difficult to know how much rain has fallen because of the wind. My Rain guage shows only 10 mm. It could easily be 2 or 3 times more. Or maybe I am exaggerating

    • no flooding here..n yes ur exaggerating..ur rain gauge is perfect

    • Yes you are exaggerating :) The ground is just wet here and not even a small puddle forming. This is looking like the infamous 96 cyclone where its all wind and no rain :P

    • I dont think its too heavy yet – no flooding or even stagnation in BN as of now.

  125. cdl records 170kmph wind tis morning

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&WMO=43329&TIME=all&CONT=asie&R=0&LEVEL=140&REGION=0020&LAND=II&ART=wind&NOREGION=1&PLZ=&PLZN=_____&SORT=__&TEMP=___&WETTER=__&&TYP=__&SEITE=0

    • am sure it is an error

      • it has to be :o

  126. Current landfall area is Zest resort in Pudducherry in Cuddalore road.

    Somebody needs to call the property and warn them of the dangers of Thane

    • Gust of 155 km makes Thane very dangerous…..Its high time Media starts reporting THANE in breaking news …

      • I have done my bit on facebook

    • Resort guests would be sleeping still? or getting ready to be blown away! Media still not reporting any news about Thane. coverage of lokpall bill in RS.

      Chennai may not bear the brunt!

  127. radar looks deadly for chennai -pondi stretch

    • Oh! Yes…..I am surprised that print and visual media have not focussed much on Thane as yet……

    • Lokpal made Thane unimportant event for media

      • Had this cyclone been heading towards Mumbai.. even if it is far away this storm would have been blown out of proportion and reported by the media ( NDTV,CNN IBN )

        • yes exactly or even any drizzle in bangalore will be reported. Baffoons.

      • and cricket

    • sel some say that the weakening flag on is it good or bad for rains

  128. KEA WHAT IS THIS we are dead!!! storm peaking gusts at 155kmph

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm

  129. another system getting ready in s.china sea…

    • s…u r correct sel. but that system is going to tarnish Thailand,Vietnam, Malaysia and singapore

  130. OMG its Super Dark here!!!! :o

  131. Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Red Message

    Orange to Red

  132. imd report out. no suprises yet

    • storm position;new update shows steady westerly movement…

  133. chennai be aware…
    http://westernpacificweather.com/2011/12/29/1933/

  134. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/COLOR/SOUTHERNASIA/IMAGESDisplay/b8KwumsWXRfuG

    • Excellent explanation here.

      http://westernpacificweather.com/

      watch the video

      Chennai region likely to witness huge storm surge and he talks about tornadoes also

  135. http://www.weather.com/weather/today/INXX0202

    Shows cloud mass intensity beautifully…The best view so far. Its at 8.30 am this morn.

  136. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/ppi_chn.gif

    • i couldn’t get the image from the link…details please sel

      • refresh it….. i think everyone getting it..

  137. shivakumar krishna moorthy, r u 4m cuddalore???? if so,stick to this blog so tat v can get updates then n there..

    • http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain

      More rains only for south of us..mainly pondy..worst thing is Bengalure may get a lot than expected from Thane :-(

      • :)

  138. Its bucketing here with heavy wind, thats why rain rate is low.

    We just toucked the 39 km/hr mark

  139. tis reminds me of October 27,2005.deep depression tat gave us 42cm of rain in 24hrs :)

    • no overconfidence jon..

  140. nothing started in pondy as per radar

    • Chennai geography is more exposed to sea than cdl n pdy.so wait for sometime before the deluge begins there n hopefully ere too :)

      • Very steady heavy spell for a while in BN

  141. pouring rain now :)

    • Doppler is showing some intense looking clouds coming in …they are about 25 kms from chennai…..That would be even heavier.

  142. still its showing westerly movement…
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_06B/webManagerIR/last24hrs.gif

    • OMG..Foreca predicting the eye to cross near Chennai!

      http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain

      • does this means that chennai will get less rainfall???

  143. Nothing unusual here in cuddalore. It’s just cloudy here. No signs of any rain/wind.

    • hai sivakumar pls update what is the weather prevailing in and around cuddalore

  144. .

  145. FORECA furthur reduced rainfall. 70 mm for chennai. Is there any reason?

    • they never increased to reduce

  146. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-caz.htm

    Eye is losing shape

  147. rr n winds picking up all the time

  148. rapid weakening flag on…

    • Thats good For everybody.

      • Yes

        • rapid weakening flag is still off, weakening flag is on

  149. latest radar picture shows eye slightly losing shape?

  150. where is it raining in chennai?South Chennai has a drizzle only


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