Posted by: keaweather | December 29, 2011

Heavy rain and wind expected from evening as cyclone nears coast

Extrememly heavy rain is possible towards evening and night. Landfall is expected Friday early monring close to Puducherry.


Responses

  1. http://keaweather.wordpress.com/2011/12/29/any-hope-for-chennai-from-cyclone-thane/

  2. 11.95 -81.12, flag off, pressure drop, slight up 2 knots to 65…

  3. 220 votes today. Where are all these people?

  4. 11.95 -81.12

  5. ghost winds

    • don’t frighten thunderjove!

  6. todays max temp recorded was at 8:40 om, we could still beat this

  7. VS

    • Jal Vaazhga!

  8. Is it raining in Pondy or Cuddalore? Can someone confirm? As per radar, both these places must now be getting pounded.

  9. Very very windy for the past half hour!

    • Yes – windiest phase in BN

  10. weakening flag is now OFF

  11. 12.15 -80.98

  12. ap 17mm cuddalore 2mm til 5.30pm

  13. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
    HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT BUT HAS
    MAINTAINED A 10-NM RAGGED EYE. A 291205Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL
    MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
    OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. TC 06B IS FORECAST
    TO TRACK WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL AT TAU 12, AND IS EXPECTED TO
    DISSIPATE OVER INDIA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION
    OF WBAR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z,
    300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//

    and still maintaining 11.7N for landfall

  14. u r cryin like a 5 year old kid dashman!… “aaaaaaaaa mazhai varla mazhai varla aaaaaaaaa” cheeeee!!! enna kodume sir ithu ennaku venuma???!!! :( u can accuse me or someone who predicted more rain tomorrow!!! :D
    enna pureeyutha??? :D ;) :cool:


    • .

  15. Chromepet has been receiving intermittent rain right thro tho the winds is not very heavy

  16. for sure BBC, GFS, Cola and WU cant be wrong.

    Thane is heading north, would probably make landfall near mahabalipuram.

    • so we will get some rains

    • No Kea. It will cross Pondy only. the latest co ordinates from JTWC confirming that.

      • http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/text/06B-list.txt now @ 17.93N 81.12E

        • 17.93 ?????? has it gone to orissa???

          • Sorry 11.93N

  17. Nellore, Nagapattinam, Ongole, Machilipatnam, Balasore, Paradip, Chittagong, what is common with all these places. Come on anyone?

    • All are places with humans residing with some domestic pets..

      • Not spoken like a man in the KEA blog, all places have been hit directly by cyclones over the years.

    • rofl! :D

  18. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
    OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS

    • JTWC maintains same track

  19. Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

    Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Sri Lanka
    probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bangalore (13.0 N, 77.6 E)
    probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Jaffna (9.7 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

  20. Thane is coming.

    11.80 -81.45
    11.80 -81.38
    12.15 -81.68
    12.15 -81.21
    12.05 -81.05
    12.25 -80.74

    New twist in the Thane – the return of Jal

    • kea wat do u mean by this?

      • its not going to pondy or cuddalore. Its coming to mahabalipuram.

        Just wait and watch.

      • r u joking?

  21. Thane facts

    Added 330 likes in FB
    Added 70 odd followers in Twitter

    Broke the all time record for kea.metsite
    Broke the all time record for busiest day in blog too

    • All records broken for the cyclone that never was for chennai!

  22. hi dash im back!!! :)
    today there were a few heavy showers with strong winds!
    and y r u cryin like a baby?! :D :lol:

  23. Winds are picking up in radar …. gusting upto 50knts….

  24. The rains in S/SW part slowly shifting north bcoz of circulation (as per Foreca’s prediction)..check-out the two crescent-shaped red areas in radar :-)

  25. How is the situation now currently at Pulicat ?? Pulicat mani ..can u comment?

  26. The lower sst seems to be the most likely cause for less convection & precipitation. Only when the imdchennai figures are got tomorrow we can know which areas got the bulk of rains from Thane.

  27. rr n winds picking up suddenly.Wats happening?

    • winds now frm n ne

    • hi jon, where are the torrential rains, just drizzles throughout the day with one moderate spell. The cyclone that never was again!

  28. !!!!!! Thane outcome to strengthen the belief of Chennai people !!!!!!

    Chennai will never be affected much by cyclones. Any cyclone which forms in BOB will always go to either Andhra/Orissa or Pondy/Nagai even at the last minute.

    • Chennai’s Bermuda triangle must be nature’s gift to tackle cyclones :-)

    • chennai was only once if I remember in 1984 was in the path of cyclone crossing, in fact it crossed just 80 km away from chennai. Another cyclone that never was for chennai, Thane!

  29. its so windy outside with heavy drizzles

  30. Because of circulation, Chennai mite get few heavier ones till tomorrow early morning..

  31. Heavy drizzles continuing here..

  32. Just measured around 30 mm at my home in Madambakkam. Drizzle is still continuing and sometimes heavier with wind.

  33. THis will soon lose its category 1 and wil become a tropical storm by tonight… It is dissipating so fast…

    • jtwc still maintains its forecast

      • what they say?

      • what they say?TC heading towards nagai belt?

        • no change in the track n intensity

      • Yes.. JTWC says like that.. One thing i doubt why the wind and rain is sluggish… Probably the wind radius is not reaching chennai belt.. The wind radius in much lesser than what it should be… JTWC is very confident that heavy showers with winds reaching 90 knts during the land fall….. I doubt whether this could be JAL Part 2….
        Jon, what do you think ??

  34. what is the exact status of the cyclone? i am near sea. its so rough the sea… can anyone pls update

  35. THis is looking like sappai Cyclone… Verum build ups !!!!

  36. ***** Pondy Collector’s Order *****

    Nobody should be allowed to use the Beach road because of high tides

    -Sun News

    • ithu namake theriyum…. but still people will use it.. foolish

  37. i might end up as the winner, i earlier predicted 25mm from tis system :( :(

    • beware of thunder, he mite come and fight with u saying he predicted 10 to 100 mm :-D

    • I predicted 40 mm .. me too have chances to become winner

  38. What about pondy and cuddalore?

    • they are receiving nice rains now.

  39. thunderkid escapu! :-D

    • Where is he..he was the one who created over hype initially..

      Adida avana, pudra avana, vetra avana……
      :-D

  40. pressure rises to 990…wind 63knts…its rapidly dissipiating

  41. Ramanan will be scratching his head more than us,if this remains jal part-2 for chennai….he cun’t explain for sometime,why jal dint give rian to coastal TN and instead dumped everything in the interiors!

    • if he can find the exact answer he will be called weather god :p

  42. Greatest comedy of 2011!

    “Hope for some optimism”

    - Words from Kea

    rofl :-D

    • where is thunderkid?? :D

  43. this is looking like jal … :( Disappointment !!!!

  44. Thane all set to surpass Jal to become the No.1 disappointment interms of cyclones for Chennai!

    Thane is a Soup cyclone! Flop cyclone!!

    • boss…. what is ur definition of disappointment? that it didnt flood our chennai ? or it didnt ripped lot of trees? i feel this is a good cyclone.. coz it gives us chance to enjoy the cyclone in dec.. and also it doesnt destroy things too much… and we have more than enough rains.. so what more we want? not floods and chaos definetly

  45. still wunderground says we’ll get around 200mm tomo. is this site reliable?

  46. Hope for some optimism. Cola and WU predict bring rains for chennai tomorrow.

  47. Yes Jon, very happy that Bengaluru will be cold and dry!

    Namakku illanaalum paravailla, avangalukku kidaika koodathu :-D

    • idhuvallava nallennam :-D

  48. Its heavy rain and windy.. hope it continues

    • Where?

  49. Usually the northern part of a cyclone will have all the rain bearing clouds..here everything is in the S/SW!

  50. Wind reduced to 65knots….itss weakening rapidly..similar to JAL..as it neared coast…interiors are going to receive heavy rainfall!

    • its may be jal part 2 for chn but not for pdy

      http://imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm

      • it*

  51. Everything happening as per this forecast..

    http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain

    Whatz the use of being a coastal city? Only the interiors are going to get bountiful rains :-(

    • rains will miss bengloor acc to tat track wich is vry gud :D :D

    • Mr Dash, we already received max rains for chennai. We dont need a cyclone to spoil human lifes and properties.

  52. Heavy rains with strong winds now

    • where?

      • Stopped now..in Adambakkam

  53. Very disappointing show so far – we seem to be in the midst of the outer bands and yet the rain is negligible.

    Sel – anything else brewing in the bay? This will be finished tomorrow, mostly leaving us to fend off higher temperature for the next 3-4 days until it dissipates completely.

    • from my point of view its not disappointing.no one believed that there will be rains after dec 15 but thane has changed that.whatever rains we get is beneficial and it is sel who predicted us rains.many people in the blog shared invaluable comments and i m happy to be part of this blog.

      last but not the least…lets c whats going to happen when it makes landfall.

  54. Its raining heavily here in Tambaram now…the heaviest so far from Jal part-2!

  55. The intensity and wind speed have rapidly fallen in last 2 updates. Rapidly dissipating ?

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt

    • i think yes…even rain intensity is dissipiating!

  56. its not at all fair to compare tis system with JAL :mrgreen:

    look at the eye feature :o

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/caz_chn.gif

    • i think even the infamous jal had an eye!!….so similar with Thane!

      • is it??? i dnt think so.i still remember the radar img durin jal.it looked awful,.not even a circulation was visible

  57. Intensity of rain weakening everwhere according to radar!

  58. Check the latest radar image…

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/caz_chn.gif

  59. omg!! pondy n cdl in for flash floods

    • they both will get around 25cm.

  60. thane can be compared with laila but not with JAL :D its even more intense than laila

  61. where is our ever optimistic guys sel?? he alwasy gives us some confidence about rains! :)

    • always*

  62. There is nothing on the eastern side of the eye…so after landfall,unlike nisha,rains will come to abrupt stop!

  63. Chennai is gonna receive 25cm or 25mm ? :( ..i think 25mm is more likely!

  64. suddenly blog turned negative about rains

    • Normally for a cyclone making landfall between MAS and NGT, we should’ve got atleast 10cm by now. Right now its at a depressing 22 mm :( So don’t think there’s gonna be an increased rainfall hereon !!

  65. just now witnessed a vry strong gust easily around 50kmph

  66. Surface rainfall intensity did not show even for once a red spot…!!…Thane is Jal part-2..!

  67. THIS IS NISHA RADAR IMAGE…

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mGPG_oG5SNc/TnTrGSEWayI/AAAAAAAAAcE/qugUyzLdAng/s1600/Cyclone%2Bnisha%2B2008.jpg

    While crossing, the system outer band waves produced more rains…Thane will also follow the same procedure..

    • Nisha is a wowwiie!

    • but v have hardly received any heavy fall??? will v ever receive it again? others are debating about thane to be jal part-2.. :(

  68. http://westernpacificweather.com/2011/12/29/tropical-cyclone-thane-29-dec-2011-evening-update/

    evening update!

    • Too late, the author himself commented here and has tracked back to this thread :-)

  69. Now clouds changed the direction…its from NorthEast Now…

    Now the Spiral of the system will bring more rain clouds to chennai…

  70. Nisha crossed somewhere near karaikal and we got some 40cm….

    Laila din’t even come close and we got 20cm….

    JAL and THANE are crossing on our head….Jal was the biggest joke of all time(but at least it caused heavy rain over Interior tn) ….but THANE?

    • Thane moved North East ??

      http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt

      12.15 81.68 …..!!!!!!

      • its all error

    • thane will show its fury in cuddalore n pondy.lets hope we get some decent amount

  71. most of the rain clouds are over souther end of the storm.the circulation may bring back the clouds over northern region in few hours again

    • we have got 2cm.how much pondy and cuddalore managed to get?

      • cuddalore 2mm since 17.30.Chennai leads the chart as of now

        • ok lets expect something in the nit.sea city and pondy the fury receivers once again.

        • till*

  72. still not over wait for sometime.there may be a sudden change

  73. Here raining. You are saying not raining there.

  74. The radar doesnt look good for chennai now :( :( …no flaring red anymore near chennai!

  75. sel
    above >250mm possible?

    • i think its due to anti-clockwise movement

  76. Even i’m baffled by why SRI is showing nothing! :(

  77. A good spell here. Another round just started now.

  78. Clouds above my home are moving towards s-sw since morning.

  79. this strong system is based on today night landfall

  80. guyz cyclone thane like as jal only …..just 2cm only we get …………………..aiyoooooooooo ena koduma sir ethu

    • jal gave us atleast 7cm…very severe cyclone thane only 2cm lol

      • where is selva ? he said after 5pm get heavy rain but nw whats going on ………

      • joel not yet over let us see

  81. Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

    Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)
    probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

  82. how come gunasir gave assumption of 25 cm

  83. I am unable to understand this.

    There is non stop rain for us for 250 km, lots of orange spots in max radar

    But in SRI why nothing is coming. If its all disspitating by the time it reaches the coast, then its bad news for us. We cant expect more than 50 mm from Thane

    • s kea i too had same doubt im really frustrated with this type of rain ,i expected more from orange dots ,normally in evening storm in swm we ll have sure for 5 cm but this looks frustrating

    • It doesnt looks like it weakened, but looking at what has happened so far in the day, I too doubt we’d get more than 50 mm here.

    • had to agree with u..im afraid this is going to be the biggest dissapointment of the year :(
      hope next year we will get some good systems

  84. http://www.weather.com/weather/today/INXX0202:1:IN

    Lovely snap at 2.30 pm today

  85. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/caz_chn.gif

  86. THANE EYE NEARING TN COAST…

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/full/20111229.0400.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.06BTHANE.75kts-967mb-119N-827E.100pc.html

  87. omg! Cyclone is here.power gone :(

    • light drizzles in ramapuram.it started well by 5.25pm now stopped.will we get rains or???

  88. Clouds movement is from North now…..IN noon it was NW…

    North looks damn black…

    Heavy Rains & winds are on the way….

  89. 1 more degree towards east will confirm cuddalore as landfall. Now its 81.42 , if it reaches 80.5. its between cuddalore and Pondy

  90. It seems that the thick cloud cover anticlockwise movement just barely touches the Southern fringe of Chennai. Moreover, on seeing the radar, there are lot of vaccum in the North and Northeast of the eye, . Those vaccum will surely have a impact either positively or negatively depending upon the further side movement of the system

  91. Heavy Rain started..

  92. AT 5 PM…

    Lat :11.8 N

    Lon : 82.1 E

    WIND : 80 Kts

    Pres : 967 mb

    Maintaning the Wind speed is 80 kts…( very severe) 148.16 km/h

  93. The real force of the storm is unfolded now

  94. Even if it doesn’t rain, cyclone Thane will be remembered for 1 thing.

    Its the busiest day for my website

    Still less than 3,000 views to go to make the busiest day for the blog as well

  95. Jon

    my prediction

    pondy-400mm
    cuddalore-350mm
    mahabalipuram-350mm
    chennai-250mm
    karaikal-200mm

    • i would be really happy with 25cm :) meanwhile its very very windy now

  96. its turning stormy outside

  97. When will the wind direction change? For most part it is W or NW or NNW. Does this push away the clouds approaching Chennai? I thought NE is the best wind flow for Chennai to get more rains.

    • it is because if the circulation its moving in that direction… but the cyclone is obviously coming in from the east only.!! only the clouds inside the circulation is moving in that manner and the wind too!

  98. http://www.ndtv.com/page?type=blogviewlive&q_blog_id=161773&pfrom=home-topstories

  99. my rainfall prediction (appx)

    pondy-300mm
    cuddalore-320mm
    mahabalipuram-250mm
    chennai-150mm
    karaikal-100mm


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