Everything seems to be working for a Chennai landfall on Friday morning. Rain and winds to start from Wednesday night.
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Everything seems to be working for a Chennai landfall on Friday morning. Rain and winds to start from Wednesday night.
Posted in NEM 2011
http://keaweather.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/rains-from-cyclone-thane-to-begin-thursday-morning/
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 12:27 pm
sea turned very very rough all along tn coast…nellore-pondi belt will hav a wave height of 12 to 15 feet
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 12:21 pm
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely to commence over north Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from tomorrow the 29th December 2011 onwards. The intensity of rainfall would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25cm or more) from 29th evening onwards and extend to Rayalseema and north interior Tamil Nadu.
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 12:20 pm
THANE REACHING THE CAT 1 STORM POSITION …
AT 6.45 GMT
LAT : 12.1 N
LON: 85.2 E
Wind : 60 Kts
Pressure : 982.8 MB
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/main.html
By: rajkmr on December 28, 2011
at 12:16 pm
imd diary hinted of slight weakening before landfall
By: Rocker............... on December 28, 2011
at 12:16 pm
thane to make a landfall by tmrw midnight….-imd chennai
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 12:15 pm
IMD 11.30 report: Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Nellore district of south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.
By: rajar77 on December 28, 2011
at 12:14 pm
thane intensified to 65 knts turning spiral shape…
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 12:12 pm
bright sun shine is really good for any approaching cyclone and rains.
for the past 20 minutes, radar refelcts drizzling at about 300 kms east of chennai indicates rain bearing clouds were spread between 200 and 500 kms. by evening chennai might get cloud cover and by midnight drizzling to commence.
but the system is very slow in movement and it is not all that favourable to be in ocean bed for longer time. let us see.
ss.
By: maisuh on December 28, 2011
at 12:05 pm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/qlm.gif
http://www.motifake.com/image/demotivational-poster/small/1111/oh-crap-facepalm-work-crap-oops-robin-demotivational-posters-1320985344.jpg
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 12:01 pm
IMD suggests south of Chennai– Mahabalipuram?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone_fdp/CycloneFDP.htm
By: gopal666 on December 28, 2011
at 11:56 am
Joel,
Take care of ur rain guage..Thane is getting ready to rip apart Adambakkam..
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:52 am
Will cyclone Thane be the most over rated cyclone in history?
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 11:57 am
I think Thane is finished. Thats why IMD has not bothered updating
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 12:00 pm
when the govt works properly???
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 12:11 pm
LOL dash
,,is it going to be that severe?,i still feel its going to be a jal part 2
By: Joel on December 28, 2011
at 12:15 pm
System slowly getting spiral shape..
btw Sel and thunder are invisible
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:50 am
Its 11:41 am now
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 11:41 am
32 km/hr wind recorded. We are sure to break that soon
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 11:40 am
this sun shine is very useful to intensify
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 11:40 am
IF SYSTEM CLOSE TO 300 KM ONLY THE EFFECT OF CYCLONE IS GOING TO KNOW BUT WINDY WHAT IS THE LATEST NEWS ABOUT CYCLONE
By: Vinoth Kannan on December 28, 2011
at 11:39 am
Cyclone is going to Burma
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:41 am
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 11:43 am
More n more dots appearing within 300km
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:37 am
OMG..Jon, dust kelambudhu
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:35 am
so it has to be a severe storm atm.mazha eppo kelambum??
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 11:41 am
thanichu seyal padatha nu sollirakana illaya? he he he ………
http://monsoondata.org/wx/chengfs.png
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 11:34 am
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NfSd8FQ6WB4/TvqEomfhh2I/AAAAAAAAHKM/XPR8nUhKLtg/s1600/IR.jpg
The rainy part is below the center..nothing much above also..that may be the reason for reduced rain prediction
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:33 am
is it cloudy in chennai now?
By: gana (@rajugana) on December 28, 2011
at 11:22 am
Margazhi veyil palla kaatitu elikudhu
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:26 am
no its bright n sunny but quite windy
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 11:27 am
Very windy with loud noise
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:19 am
Nobody even cares about whatz going to happen tmrw..some r not even aware of whatz approaching them..that includes media, government and public..
Many r making fun of predictions already since sun is shining brightly..they also strongly believe that cyclones never affect Chennai!
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 11:17 am
Thats true…i told to my frnds , but they told…IF ramanan tells its coming..means it won’t come..
Mazhai varum anna varadhu…
Enna kodumai sir idhu..
no one is believing the IMD forecast….
By: rajkmr on December 28, 2011
at 11:22 am
Steps for preventing…
http://indianweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/12/aweful-thane-prevention-and-mitigation.html
By: rajkmr on December 28, 2011
at 11:01 am
guys, though the cyclone is said to make a landfall here, why have accu and wunderground put chances of precipitation very less?
By: lfcforlife247 on December 28, 2011
at 10:55 am
we can’t predict how much the cyclone will produce rain…
they will predict if it reaches to a minimum distance 0f 400 kms to land….
( i m not sure about the distance)
As for me the core will produce a max of >25 cms for TS. …if it reaches with the same intensity…
By: rajkmr on December 28, 2011
at 11:14 am
omg! Its windy out ere but still sun is out
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 10:53 am
It suddenly has turned pretty warm. Must be effect of the system
By: ashwinds on December 28, 2011
at 11:19 am
Change of clouds..cirrus giving way to alto cumulus..gud sign..
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 10:49 am
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=66&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 10:48 am
cyclone is not even close, but here the airtel network is down
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 10:43 am
its moving south its cross definetely tamilnadu but its one of the sloweat movement cyclone any latest news
By: Vinoth Kannan on December 28, 2011
at 10:12 am
lat gfs
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/12/28/basis00/swas/pr06/11122912_2800.gif
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 10:07 am
Today is definitely windier than yesterday. If everything stays on track, wind should only pick up more
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 9:39 am
sat image at 9.30 am
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/COLOR/SOUTHERNASIA/IMAGESDisplay/XIcZCFYWzDdmg
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:39 am
hai sel just returned from shirdi trip hop ing u allguys busy in tracking Thane from the blog i realise its very strong and potent is it really going to cross tn
By: sechastalin on December 28, 2011
at 10:35 am
its very much windy now
By: sechastalin on December 28, 2011
at 11:17 am
tday no dew drops seen but ther was cold winds…gud sign.
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:37 am
omg.. thane reached 60knts..
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:34 am
thunder,shear looks great…tis will trigger the intenification so ,severe cyclonic storm is few inches away..
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:32 am
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:26 am
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:26 am
This shows the actual movement of this system..
http://www.hurricanezone.net/tcgraphics/io0611.gif
By: aruns1411 on December 28, 2011
at 9:22 am
Cyclone is intensifying. Moves slowly northwards.. Rain from tomorrow. Track not changed.
By: emnomc on December 28, 2011
at 9:18 am
Weakening flag on ?
By: mani on December 28, 2011
at 9:15 am
nope… who said ???? … It has intensified its movement from 7 knts to 9knts … which means that it is intensifying further…
By: aruns1411 on December 28, 2011
at 9:20 am
Sel gud morning
Look at the shear map!!!
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
By: Thunderjove on December 28, 2011
at 9:23 am
steady intensification
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/text/06B-list.txt
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:14 am
in this we can see something great
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-vis.htm
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 9:09 am
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:06 am
Good info’s sel.
By: mani on December 28, 2011
at 9:18 am
weakening flag on
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 9:00 am
east luks black and btw eye developing
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indian/southern/vis/LATEST.jpg
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 9:00 am
Yes eye has formed well
By: emnomc on December 28, 2011
at 9:06 am
Rains to commence from today midnight
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain
By: originaldashman on December 28, 2011
at 8:52 am
Around noon today. Thane is going to reach as CAT 1 STORM…
AT 8AM :
LAT : 12.18
Wind : 57 Kts
Pressure : 991.8 MB
By: rajkmr on December 28, 2011
at 8:42 am
as the system is moving at the rate of 4 Kts /Hr… will it not take 81 hrs to cover the 600 kms.. 1kt = 1.85 kms
By: chandru24 on December 28, 2011
at 8:50 am
It isn’t .. It is moving at the rate of 9 knts… Yesterday it intesified from 5 knts to 7 knots and today from 7 knots to 9 knots… Which means the system should cross anytime between tomorrow noon – evening…
By: aruns1411 on December 28, 2011
at 9:17 am
JTWC REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
1., TC 06B WILL LIKELY REACH PEAK INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 20 FEET. ( its very severe)
3. Maintaining its same track..so no change..
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0611.gif
By: rajkmr on December 28, 2011
at 8:39 am
storm track is sharp westerly in direction…
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 8:34 am
still i couldnt believe the sytem track…its recurving twrds chennai..usually it will recurve away 4m chennai…
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 8:32 am
This system is still keeping everyone on the edge of their seats.
The landfall keeps extending by 1 day..
By: chandru24 on December 28, 2011
at 8:36 am
lat jtwc track
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0611.gif
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 8:26 am
at 8am.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20111228.0230.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.06BTHANE.60kts-978mb-121N-852E.100pc.jpg
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 8:24 am
big difference between 2 sites in marking the position..
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 8:29 am
Cola predicting 2 mm from this system
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 8:23 am
he he but gfs has chnged its track slightly so some improvement expected
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 8:27 am
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN WESTWARD
BY A DEEP STEERING RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER MYANMAR. AS TC 06B TRACKS WESTWARD, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER ANOTHER 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COUPLED
WITH THE LOSS OF ITS DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE, WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 8:19 am
12.57 -85.58
12.61 -85.35
moved w considerably
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 8:17 am
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_small.png
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 8:12 am
what is the forecast for the next 2-days, any chances of heavy rain?
By: suundar24 on December 28, 2011
at 8:14 am
yes…cyclone to screw chennai..
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 8:15 am
but do IMD bring out their bulletins 1 hour early sometimes. Isn’t it better to wait for another hour and get a better updated report?
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 8:10 am
I am getting a bit impatient here. When wil it start? predictions & forecsts are hard to believe until they come true.. Especially for chennai..
By: balajisampathkumar on December 28, 2011
at 7:51 am
moved north
13.65 -85.46
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 7:50 am
error
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 7:59 am
gud mng jon, returned from a five day get away trip to quiet yercaud. What are the chances of rain in chennai? Has it moved towards AP?
By: suundar24 on December 28, 2011
at 8:07 am
no it hasnt moved towards ap.it will make Lf only near chn but the intensity is the only concern as of now
even gfs shows Lf just to n of us
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 8:14 am
ecmwf landfall just to s of chn as a severe cyclone
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwf/2011/12/27/basis12/swas/pslv/11122912_2712.gif
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 7:45 am
Kea i differ
IMD says DD after crossing the coast.that is near vellore.
Check the coordinates here
http://itouchmap.com/latlong.html
By: Pradeep John on December 28, 2011
at 7:43 am
it will cross the coast as severe cyclone acc to imd
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 7:45 am
foreca predicts pondi landfall not chennai and also increased predictions for pondi
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 7:37 am
it will not happen, they are not good trackers of cyclones
By: Pradeep John on December 28, 2011
at 7:41 am
http://www.foreca.com/India/Union_Territory_of_Puducherry/Puducherry
look at this
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 7:43 am
looks like the system is carrying lots of moisture.even a landfall 100km away on either side can cause vry hvy rainfall
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 7:37 am
Jon,
moniotor this site
it gives probability of rainfall….
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=THANE
By: Pradeep John on December 28, 2011
at 7:42 am
do u have the link of nasa website wich provides prec accum chart??
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 7:48 am
Jtwc – 272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 85.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271419Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A CONCENTRIC AND WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATETHE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IS SEPARATING FROM VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE, WHICH MAY LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE BEING COMPENSATED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. TC 06B IS UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 26 TO 27 DEGREES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MYANMAR IS DRIVING TC 06B WESTWARD. THERE IS A MILD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, AND GFS IS SHOWING AN EXAGGERATED POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO THAT WEAKNESS. OTHER GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALONG TRACK BRINGING ABOUT A WEAKEING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET.
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 7:23 am
These IMD ppl are taking us for a ride. Trust me these rains will never arrive. There is a reason for cola and foreca to keep reducing their estimates.
Imd says rain will arrive only tomorrow and on Friday only a DD at best
By: keaweather on December 28, 2011
at 7:20 am
no its comin towards us.rains wil arrive by 12 tonite acc to foreca
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=igms&CONT=asie&BIG=1&LOOP=12&ZEIT=201112280100
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 7:30 am
Kea i differ
IMD says DD after crossing the coast.that is near vellore.
Check the coordinates here
http://itouchmap.com/latlong.html
By: Pradeep John on December 28, 2011
at 7:40 am
Imd bulletin at 5.30am TROPICAL STORM THANE ADVISORY NO. TEN ISSUED AT 0000 UTC OF 28 TH DECEMBER 2011 BASED ON 2100 UTC CHARTS OF 27 TH DECEMBER 2011.
THE CYCLONIC STORM THANE OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINEDPRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF THE 27 TH DECEMBER 2011 NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 0 N AND LONGITUDE 86.0 0 E, ABOUT 600 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279), 650 KM NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) AND 700 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN CUDDALORE (43329) AND NELLORE (43245) AROUND MORNING OF 30 TH DECEMBER 2011.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT) IS ABOUT -85 0 C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.0 0 N TO16.0 0 N AND LONGITUDE 81.0 0 E TO 88.0 0 E.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC)
Position (lat. 0 N/ long. 0 E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
27-12-2011/2100
12.5/86.0
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0000
12.7/85.5
85-95 gusting to 100
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0600
12.9/85.0
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1200
13.1/84.5
95-105 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1800
13.3/84.0
100-110 gusting to 125
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/0600
13.3/83.0
100-110 gusting to 125
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1800
13.3/81.5
95-105 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/0600
13.2/79.5
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/1800
13.0/78.5
45-55 gusting to 65
Deep Depression
REMARK:
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 27-28 DEG. C. OVER THE REGION. IT IS RELATIVELY LESS TOWARDS TAMIL NADU AND SRI LANKA COAST BECOMING 26-27 DEG. C.THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50 – 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM AND LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM SQUARE NEAR TAMILNADU AND NORTH SRILANKA COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE PHASE 5 IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION,AS PER OUR PAST STUDIES.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 15 DEG. N AND HENCE HELPS INWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY CHANGE DURING PAST SIX HOURS.THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS. CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER THEY SUGGEST SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH RESPECT TO TRACK, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOVEMEN, SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ALSO IN AGREEMENT.
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 7:19 am
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5shtZ.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5shrZ.GIF y storm is losing its intensity??now reduced to 45kts eventhough shear luks fav,..sst is slightly >27 …by cnsdring these 2 factors,thane shld reintensify.
By: selvanfun on December 28, 2011
at 7:09 am
no sel its strengthening at 57 knots
By: vijay on December 28, 2011
at 7:13 am
intensity @57 now acc to adt values
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 7:17 am
storm surge enters inland in manY parts of chennai
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 6:33 am
centre is losing its circulation.hope it reaches us atleast as a deep dep
By: jon on December 28, 2011
at 6:08 am
Looks like it’s losing shape fast… Hope it doesn’t dissipate
By: ashwinds on December 28, 2011
at 7:17 am
Sat pic shows its still chennai bound, and movement is still slow. The delay may help it reorganize a bit more – looks sightly out of shape now
By: ashwinds on December 28, 2011
at 6:02 am
according to jtwc 2 am report, system going to loose all its strength to vertical wind shear along its path before landfall. May be system would cross as a depression.
By: Rocker............... on December 28, 2011
at 2:43 am
Recall of 1994 Severe cyclone – As Chennai fears from a Severe Cyclone Thane
——————-
I made it much simpler…
Anyone has memory of 1994 Severe Cyclone that crossed Chennai) – It was the destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more.
This cyclone i witnessed it first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds…. The cyclone scared the shit out of me. I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary. Hope Cyclone Thane doesnot make any destruction like this.
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/12/recall-of-1994-cyclone-as-chennai-fears.html
By: Pradeep John on December 28, 2011
at 1:27 am
Anyone has memory of this cyclone
1994 Cyclone (Crossed near Chennai) – Destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more
—————————————————-
This cyclone i witnessed first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds….The cyclone scared the shit out of me.
I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=CpJlAAAAIBAJ&sjid=yJ4NAAAAIBAJ&pg=1694,2980541&dq=madras+cyclone&hl=en
Page no 3 and 5
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=P9oYG7HA76QC&dat=19941102&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
See page no.3
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 11:39 pm
Don’t quite remember this 94 cyclone, but remember the infamous 96 cyclone in detail. IIRC, at that time this was the 3rd cyclone that was heading towards Bangladesh. Then the twist in the path and ended up crossing near Mahabs (?!). The cyclone made landfall around evening 6-7pm, wasn’t a drop of rain but was packed with heavy winds as it crossed into land.
In distant memories, 1984 was the only year our house got flooded and 1992 was the driest (1993 the year of ‘thanni’ lorry behind running
).
BTW, thanks for the articles. Was nice to seee Madras on papers
By: Narayanan on December 28, 2011
at 12:59 am
1996 ended as a dud.
By: Pradeep John on December 28, 2011
at 1:16 am
@sel
zzzzz……
By: Thunderjove on December 27, 2011
at 11:24 pm
omg cola not at all interested in thane
http://monsoondata.org/wx/chengfs.png
By: vijay on December 27, 2011
at 11:17 pm
its based on GFS so it will be like that only
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 11:40 pm
snooze time now..ciao guys tmrw –hope Thane’s Thandav starts tmrw!
By: gopal666 on December 27, 2011
at 11:14 pm
storm slightly strengthening and moved slightly NW
By: vijay on December 27, 2011
at 11:12 pm
Is IMD site down?
By: VSN on December 27, 2011
at 11:12 pm
Gud nyt,dash,jon,vithansen,gopal ,vjay n kea… Am eager to c tmrw 5am sat pic with scs status..
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 11:05 pm
good nyt sel go and sleep u ll be happy 200% in the morning
By: vijay on December 27, 2011
at 11:09 pm
24 hrs forecast
300-400 mm rainfall in open sea….
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=THANE#
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 10:58 pm
Is it the eye – to be clearly formed in 24
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ETRAP/2011/NorthIndian/06B/TRAPGIFS/201106B.WTIO31.PGTW.262100.AMSU.12262006.18.GIF
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 10:57 pm
Moved NW
2011DEC27 163000
12.35 -86.16 OFF
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 10:56 pm
0.2 degs to n and 0.5 deg to w.so move wnw
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 10:58 pm
Crossing north Chennai
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0611.gif
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 10:54 pm
jon i thnk,By considering the anticlockwise spin, it would be better if it makes little south of us.
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 10:51 pm
spin factor doesnt matter.if the storm comes from se towards nw then i would prefer a lf to the s but the scenario ere is diff, storm is expected to come from ene or e and make a move towards wsw so the impact will be more over s of the lf area.anyway epdiyo mazha vantha seri
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 11:00 pm
Hypothetically if Chennai has to get 200-300mm of rains,the city is ill-prepared to manage such rains in 24hrs..in besant nagar,there are still halfdug drains…garbage all over..completely eroded roads..can imagine the scene after the deluge!
By: gopal666 on December 27, 2011
at 10:48 pm
Yes – its going to be a mess
By: ashwinds on December 28, 2011
at 5:59 am
it seems quite that many in the blog are eagerly awaiting the disaster want to be happened than worrying about its devastation caused. I am already frightened to the core on hearing that the probable rainfall in the range of 300-400mm. Chennai is not capable of even 80 mm rainfall as hitherto seen. God only saves Chennai from the disaster. As the rainfall is to last for only a few days, the flash floods will be a disaster than anything useful to our lakes or groundwater level. Hoping to get minimal damage from THANE for the sake of our Chennai. Tomorrow would be an important day for THANE and for Chennai as well. Be prepared for the worst but pray for the best.
By: vithasansen on December 27, 2011
at 10:47 pm
.lets hope that it makes a landfall and cause less destruction.
By: grully on December 27, 2011
at 10:53 pm
you are right. i am looking for rains around 50 mm . not more than that i am expecting
By: ezhilnarasu on December 27, 2011
at 11:53 pm
Some international model suggested that the storm would lose some of the sting on the last-mile stretch due to increasing values of vertical wind shear.
Vertical wind shear is the sudden change in wind speeds with height, and has proved the nemesis of building storms thanks to the ‘shearing’ effect on top brought about by wayward winds, effectively destroying the storm tower.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article2751756.ece?ref=wl_industry-and-economy
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 10:45 pm
Gopal, yes. Tats y v Always prefer landfal to little south… Landfall near kalpakam/mahabalipuram wil be most effective wrt to rain.
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 10:40 pm
lf just to n of us would be ideal since it is projected to move in wsw from e.so impact will be more over chennai than places to n of lf area
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 10:46 pm
mina min today 17.8
By: vijay on December 27, 2011
at 10:32 pm
Warning to kea members,Tmrw morning the sat image wil be deadly.,.. The southern quadrant tat is heavy ,wil be near the coast by morning.
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 10:14 pm
realtime precipitation amount of thane http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/asia/asia_accumulation_zoom.gif
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 10:08 pm
Jon- the core looks to be a deadly 350-400mm..thats deadly..apparently it has sucked in all the moisture from SE Asia and BOB..no wonder we see a purple patch..now now thats some storm!
By: gopal666 on December 27, 2011
at 10:28 pm
the outer layers are a cool 100mm and then the inner core of 300-350mm can blank a surface area of 100-200kms..does that mean that even if the eye crosses- lets say Mahabalipuram-the 300mm rains can be between pulicat and Pondy?
By: gopal666 on December 27, 2011
at 10:33 pm
s it will dump some serious rain if it follows the same path.it looks exactly like baaz which gave us almost 18cm in 4-5hrs and 28cm in 24hrs
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 10:40 pm
system to be steered westward http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0611web.txt
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 10:01 pm
Thane has slowed down considerably in the past few hours and is now almost stationary with minor movement Hope it moves fast so as to escape the wind shear and the decreasing sst
By: guna on December 27, 2011
at 9:50 pm
It will gain its intensity by tomorrow morning..
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 10:25 pm
slight NW mvmt moved 0.2 north and 0.5 east -west
By: vijay on December 27, 2011
at 9:29 pm
thane lies in the same monsoon trough which caused severe devastation in phillipines
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 9:18 pm
Radar is not OK. whatever red spots it shows in west is not real. may be next picture it will be alright.
now the latest satellite picture reveals, the system is taking a straight westward movement. now the clouds almost neared 82 east and between 11 and 15 latitude good cloud formation.
tomorrow morning we will get cloudy weather and drizzle to commence late in evening.
ss.
By: maisuh on December 27, 2011
at 9:18 pm
Is something wrong with the radar? I see some clouds north and south west of Chennai…
By: sampathca on December 27, 2011
at 9:16 pm
accu warning
Rain, heavy at times; winds gusting past 50 mph; watch for flash flooding
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 9:08 pm
Kea,
There is something wrong with this cyclone. Are you able to figure out?
By: emnomc on December 27, 2011
at 9:04 pm
wat?
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 9:13 pm
Why is it not moving quickly?
By: emnomc on December 27, 2011
at 9:23 pm
@kea, remove tat jtwc img.its too big
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 9:03 pm
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 9:00 pm
clearly showing a wsw mvt
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=igms&CONT=asie&BIG=1&LOOP=12&ZEIT=201112271500
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 8:49 pm
jtwc report out 12.28 n 86.35 again changed
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 8:47 pm
it is at 12.4 n 86.7 e
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 8:51 pm
12.28 86.35 is the lat
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 8:54 pm
I am unable to identify the eye of the cyclone. How can find it?
By: emnomc on December 27, 2011
at 8:36 pm
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?SIZE=Full&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=io&ATCF_YR=2011&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2011/io062011.11122706.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2011/io062011.11122706.gif&CURRENT=20111227.1430.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.06BTHANE.60kts-978mb-122N-866E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&CURRENT_ATCF=io062011.11122706.gif&ATCF_NAME=io062011&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2011&ACTIVES=11-SHEM-03S.GRANT,11-IO-06B.THANE,11-SHEM-96S.INVEST&MO=DEC&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2011&YR=11&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=06B.THANE&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/tpw/microvap&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/ir/geo/1km_bw&TYPE=ir&PRODUCT=ir&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_bw&PROD=ir
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 8:40 pm
this is night time, hence it will be sleeping ….Pour water on that.. it will open its eye.. Then you can see its eye ….
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 8:40 pm
No, it is not sleeping. It is awake with big eye.
Thanks Kea.
By: emnomc on December 27, 2011
at 8:54 pm
Once THANE does landfall, it will sing to all ” Kalasala Kalasala, kalasala kalasala kalsala kalasala”
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 8:33 pm
13.2/80.6 is ENNORE PORT
http://rajkmr.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/ennore.jpg
By: rajkmr on December 27, 2011
at 8:33 pm
By: rdhinakar on December 27, 2011
at 8:31 pm
Jon,
Got info from reliable source that thunderkid is busy buying candles and betromax lights for thursday and friday nights..!
Enna oru puthisaalithanam!! rofl
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 8:29 pm
13.2/80.6 is ENNORE PORT
By: rajkmr on December 27, 2011
at 8:28 pm
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_06B/webManager/last24hrs.gif
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 8:25 pm
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/COLOR/SOUTHERNASIA/index.htm
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 8:25 pm
Thane will briefly get Severe cyclone status tomorrow around noon time. From then on weakening will start as its nears the coast. It is expected to lose the Severe cyclone status by midnight.
It is expected to make landfall as a DD, just like Jal
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 8:23 pm
But still, there will be disaster ….
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 8:36 pm
surely tis storm will hit chennai…likely in between pulicat-thiruvanmiyur
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 8:22 pm
whats the difference between this and the super cyclone that hit orissa 1999 -05B?
i remember a cyclone that crossed near pondy in 2000 0r 2001 that was only wind and no greater rains.chennai should have got 5cm i guess.will it be similar to one?
By: grully on December 27, 2011
at 9:27 pm
check the animation.. its moving west..so no change in landfall http://www.weathergaines.blogspot.com
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 8:20 pm
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/vis/modis/qkm/LATEST.jpg
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 8:21 pm
13.2/80.6
New landfall area from IMD
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 8:17 pm
thatz again South Chennai
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 8:20 pm
chennai is 13.05N 80.15E
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 8:26 pm
its north Chennai.just to s of ennore which is at 13.24
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 8:29 pm
My choice..latest one..
“Naan sonnadhum mazha vandhuchaa
Naan sonnadhum puyal vandhucha
Adi rendume idham thanducha
muthu muthu pechi..
….
….”
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 8:15 pm
ha..ha..enna ya nadakuthu??
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 8:23 pm
as per accuweather the change in wind direction will happen only from thursday night to ENE till then NW only
By: templetravel on December 27, 2011
at 8:13 pm
look at tis and say …pic shot at 7.30pm.. 12.2,86.6…. movement westwards but sign of moving sw http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/ir/geo/1km_bw/20111227.1401.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.06BTHANE.60kts-978mb-122N-866E.100pc.jpg
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 8:09 pm
do u mean it will follow earlier bbc prediction of going to nagai?
By: grully on December 27, 2011
at 8:14 pm
selva will this storm hit chennai
By: adithyasra on December 27, 2011
at 8:19 pm
What will Sel sing if his month-long expectation and prediction comes true and Chennai gets historic rainfall from Thane???
Any guess???
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 8:03 pm
Vetri nichayam Idhu Vedha Sathiyam
By: Joel on December 27, 2011
at 8:04 pm
good one..but im asking about a song after achieving something!
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 8:09 pm
then he will sing ” pothuvaaga en manasu thangam, oru potiyinu vanthuvita singam, unmaye solven, nallathey seiven, vetri mel vetri varum, aaduvom paaduvom kondaaduvom”
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 8:11 pm
sel will sing ” megam karukkuthu, puyal adikuthu, tambaram vedikuthu, north tamil nadu thavikithu”…
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 8:05 pm
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 8:09 pm
namma makkal thilagam mgr song thaan “enna thaan nadakkum nadakkatumae…irutinil neethi maraiyatuma (THAN(NAL)E) veli varum thayangathaey thalaivan irukiraan mayangathey….
By: grully on December 27, 2011
at 8:07 pm
ha ha..
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 8:10 pm
wat about thunderkid?? I think he will be fasting now
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 8:10 pm
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 12.9N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 13.1N 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 13.2N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 13.1N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
POSITION NEAR 12.5N 86.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 17 FEET
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 8:02 pm
IMD 7 pm report:Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message
650km from Chennai :12.5-86.5
By: rajar77 on December 27, 2011
at 7:58 pm
inimey evanadhu thane ange podhu inge podhu nu sollathum…..
appara paar avane ??????
aanga ellam appave appadi ippo kekava venum
By: rajkmr on December 27, 2011
at 7:58 pm
Kea, can we have revised rain fall predictions from our bloggers ?
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 7:57 pm
Today evening the chillness in wind wasn’t much when compared with yesterday or day before…. as said earlier, the rain should commence from tomorrow evening if this cyclone travels at 7 knts… If it increases it speed to 10 knts, then the system will approach chennai much before than IMD predicted…
By: aruns1411 on December 27, 2011
at 7:55 pm
Its moving north to take a curve…thats all nothing moving to AP
AP latitude starts frm 14 N….if the system moves to that lat also, it will revert back to 12.4 lat …
due to present UAC in NorthWest..
By: rajkmr on December 27, 2011
at 7:47 pm
Kea @ shocking NEWS…
LAT CHANGES AGAIN TO 12.7…
Nambikkai veiyanga pa….THANE NAMUKU THAN…
NO DOUBT….100% CONFIRMED
By: rajkmr on December 27, 2011
at 7:50 pm
ecmwf on gfs: nan theriyama thaan kekuraen,nee enna avlo periya appataker ah???
jtwc on gfs:- unakae avlo athupu naa,engallaku evlo irkum…
kea blog: dai ….mangoose mandaya thoo. odu apdi
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 7:47 pm
By: grully on December 27, 2011
at 8:00 pm
What to expect from the E/NE horizon when Thane nears Chennai?
Since this system has already attained cyclone status, there wont be any huge anvils/nimbus clouds visible..the current cirrus will slowly envelope the entire sky and giv a very hazy atmosphere..slowly high clouds will creep in and gets thicker and darker with strengthening winds and mild drizzle in the air..this will be till tmrw evening..from late night low clouds will be moving fast from N/NW, drizzles will get heavy and steady, rain rate will pickup gradually by thursday morning with monsterous winds…and the rest will be history
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 7:42 pm
Nice description. I think what you’ve mentioned is going to happen this time for sure.
By: guna on December 27, 2011
at 7:53 pm
thnx Guna Sir..
Hope atleast this time they correctly declare holiday for schools and colleges..will be great if they declare holiday for all offices also
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 7:57 pm
1330z It is 12.70 -85.94
By: rajar77 on December 27, 2011
at 7:41 pm
Radar spots the first rain cloud from Thane
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/ppz_chn.gif
By: Joel on December 27, 2011
at 7:38 pm
already it has rained or rain clouds were there west of Chengulput and off tirutani in wee hours of today!
By: rdhinakar on December 27, 2011
at 7:48 pm
i think it was an error,but the blue spots u see 400km east of chennai should be from Thane!!
By: Joel on December 27, 2011
at 7:58 pm
Useful link for us now…
Latitude and Longitude Map of India……….
http://www.mapsofindia.com/lat_long/
By: rajkmr on December 27, 2011
at 7:34 pm
type the system position (lat and long) on google satellite map..
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 7:41 pm
Drizzles nearing Pondy in radar
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 7:34 pm
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 7:29 pm
12.66 -86.05
13.43 -86.05
does this mean AP?
By: gopal666 on December 27, 2011
at 7:27 pm
above are the last 2 readings
By: gopal666 on December 27, 2011
at 7:28 pm
tats error.wait for the next one
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 7:29 pm
yep ur right
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 7:32 pm
there you go: 12.70 -85.94
By: Narayanan on December 27, 2011
at 7:43 pm
Shocking news. Latest GFS predict landfall in andhra
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 7:21 pm
north coastal a.p or south coastal a.p?
By: grully on December 27, 2011
at 7:25 pm
Central AP
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 7:28 pm
Whoever gave me 1 vote, can explain the reasoning behind this?
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 7:26 pm
yest it predicted landefall over vizag
By: jon on December 27, 2011
at 7:27 pm
kea ,here it is
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/TRANSWM.PNG
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 7:28 pm
Thane is expected to weaken………But not to the extent of Jal ………JTWC expects to have 70 knots before landfall which could significantly cause a lot of damage……………
By: Rocker............... on December 27, 2011
at 7:18 pm
why has Wunderground wikedly dropped its forecast to 11.9mm from Thane!Beats me..
Karl Kiefer’s ( see her column in the right side of the wunderground page) predictions are “Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Six will continue moving through the Bay of Bengal as a tropical storm. No landfall is expected in southern India on Wednesday, but residents in the area just north of Sri Lanka should prepare for its eventual landfall.”
By: gopal666 on December 27, 2011
at 7:10 pm
“wickedly”
By: gopal666 on December 27, 2011
at 7:17 pm
Ramanan on tv
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 7:08 pm
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/ni201106.gif
By: selvanfun on December 27, 2011
at 7:07 pm
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 7:05 pm
Similarities between Thane and Jal
Thane expected to become a Severe cyclone
Jal was a Severe cyclone before weakening
Thane expected to weaken before making landfall close to Chennai
Jal weakened into a DD before making landfall over Chennai
Rainfall from Thane – 0 mm
Rainfall from Jal – 70 mm
As Thane is expected to weaken before landfall, can we expect it to cross without any rainfall?
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 6:49 pm
Yes..definitely..u can expect that for ur Nunga
By: originaldashman on December 27, 2011
at 6:54 pm
By: grully on December 27, 2011
at 6:55 pm
Someone mentioned they have to secure their weather station today
That said, if Thane’s still making landfall near Madras, I doubt its going to be 0 mm still even for the cursed Nungambakkam weather station
.
Its still 600 km away, too early to comment !!
By: Narayanan on December 27, 2011
at 7:41 pm
Looks like “Thane” is visible in Chennai Doppler radar @ around 500 kms…
By: sampathca on December 27, 2011
at 6:45 pm
Tomoro will be the Big day with most number of threads if TC keeps its track. Day after tomo many of us may face power and network failures :-p
By: VSN on December 27, 2011
at 6:26 pm
correct
By: rajkmr on December 27, 2011
at 6:36 pm
Why blog has suddenly gone silent
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 6:14 pm
Silence before a storm :-p
By: VSN on December 27, 2011
at 6:22 pm
I think this is the silence before a storm.
What a surprise
Kea bloggers are active only during the night and during holidays.
Even a category I storm towards chennai is not enough for attracting our bloggers. But things will change by tomorrow for sure.
By: guna on December 27, 2011
at 6:23 pm
lets hope that it makes a landfall and cause less destruction.i cant wait anymore.if it makes landfall until when we will be getting rainfall?
By: grully on December 27, 2011
at 6:49 pm
The status of Cyclone Thane as on Indian Time – 05.00 PM
———————
Intensity – 3.5
Pressure – 993 mmb
Wind Speed – 55 kts (102 kmph)
Location – 12.61 N 86.15 E
Weakening – OFF
Rapid Weakening – OFF
Landfall – Around Chennai
Crossing Date – 30th December Morning
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/12/cyclone-thane-update-chennai-is-still.html
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 5:53 pm
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?brand=wxmap&query=Chennai%2C+India&theprefset=00000143279WS&theprefvalue=ICHENNAI1
By: Pradeep John on December 27, 2011
at 5:24 pm
IMD update out. No suprises
By: keaweather on December 27, 2011
at 5:24 pm
By: sampathca on December 27, 2011
at 5:25 pm